Movie Replay

Another Day...Same Movie

3 Trades to Ponder

A few trades to talk about today! Always great to do with hindsight! It's hard to bag these babies live, but they always present themselves quite nicely.

1) Opening coil breakout to the downside with the TICK as the tell.

2) TICK -1200 reading continuation coil and go.

3) Range highs coil and go.

Yet Another VWAP Base And Go

Double Distribution Coil and Go Prints

Yet Another VWAP Base and Breakout.

Liquidation Setup

Breakout or Swing Down?

The morning reversal was a little bit later than normal today, nooner LOD, but structure was much the same. Cup-and-handle coil and go type of action to bust through the VWAP to near range HOD.

Did I mention that it was on neutral sediment? The same move plays day after day.

They need to bust it up hard at these levels, and show some evidence of increased business at higher prices, or else Santa's sliegh might hit a snowbank.

Not much new today: A creeper grind up with neutral to negative sediment. Just your typical bull market grind!

The multiple day balance now at range highs is a not so obvious 1st-class-ticket for the bulls to break this thing out.

Note to self: I see (and feel) that there is no chance for a selloff here.

But I'm either in tune with a crack up market, or I should be worried.

Sorry Santa.

Exhaustion Gap

Well, my short call was a tad early, as the overnight session took out the range highs and the regular session tanked in the afternoon.

Nothing particularly bearish about today and the action was probably just your garden variety gap fill!

I'm now on watch to figure out if this was just some longs liquidating or if it was real, newly initiating, sellers.

Interesting Post!

Overnight Short

Bullish Grind Friday

Trend Day Without TICK Support

Yesterday was absent of a TICK +1000 readings, and today did it again.

A trend day up without a TICK +1000 and only two pings above +800 is just INTERESTING. Too boot, the cumulative TICK indicator printed red readings just before the afternoon 11:00 breakout.

Today's new highs on reduced sediment momentum is what it is. But it's something to note as a structural dynamic.

All HAIL The JUMP Trade!

Well, if I didn't "get it" before today....All HAIL the 1st day of the month jump trade!

Especially in December in a bull market : )

Probably the most interesting thing about today was that there were no +1000 tick readings! And only 1 reading above +800. I guess the big gap sapped much of the program-buy-energy out of the intra-day session.

Here is to looking for some consolidation tomorrow!

Crappy Sediment: Yet the 50 Day Holds

Multi-day balance area and the last few days have sported some really crappy sediment readings -- yet the market does what it should: Hold the 50 day.

I'd be short overnight but we have the 1st day of the month buy-fest on tap for tomorrow. I still think that it goes down, but don't want to play against the 1st day of the month of December and Santa's Elf's.

50MA Daily Triggers a Double Distribution.

Thanksgiving ushers in a double distribution afternoon feel-good rally off of the 50ma. Financials were strong AM and a test of the daily 50ma that "just faded out" said "forget the short side".

Given today's rise on crappy sediment, a break out tomorrow above today's range highs on anything but ferocious internals will be a fade trade opportunity.

Unfounded Breakdown!

Today was tricky. The coil and go breakdown below the VWAP made NO sense to me given the moderate structural dynamics (and a crap load of stocks up despite the financials and energy). I've seen many a day far weaker in structure never make it more than a tick down before reversing!

But, alas,my suspicions were well-founded as the market V-reversed today all the way back up to range highs once the S2 destination target was met.

All hail the computers!

Reversal Day

Balance With Last Hour Breakout, Inside Range Day

Extreme Sediment Day

Inside Range Day

I'll be on watch for some lame push to new lows that the waiting bulls will love to punish : )

Friday Sell Day and the MUB

2nd Day of "The Grind"

Bull Market Clockwork Bounce

Today was a clockwork bull market 7:30 reversal at the daily moving 10 average. And they insulted the bears further by taking out the A period excess selling tail with a full re-trace -- with some upside range extension to boot.

Liquidation Double Top

Here is why it was worth a shot to short the morning range highs today.

This is a textbook daily double top with trend day down protocals.

The trick going forward is to determine if it was new business shorts entering or just a re-balancing of the laggard longs.

Trade of the Day: Break of Range Lows in ES without NAZ and DOW

Sometimes it's good to just review the basics: When the ES breaks out of it's range and is not accompanied by two of the other major indexes, then the odds are ripe for a reversal. Add in zero up/down volume readings along with neutral Advance-declines, then even better.

Pattern of the Week: TICK - Price Divergence

11-2-10: Tuesday -- Get Ready for a Big Move!

11-1-10: Monday - 1st Day of the Month Trade Gets Faded

Just trying to do the analysis of today. Despite today's selling that blew out a host of longs, it was not "vicious" and the mechanical lows were re-traced hard.

Here comes the Fed.

Let the games begin.

10-27-10: Multiple Divergences as the ES prints new lows....

A text book lead-in, non-confirming low print by the ES that resulted in a mammoth short squeeze today.

8-14-10: Thursday -- Unhealthy

Financials leading the market down today and still the market bounces back to near range highs...

In one word: Unhealthy.

A 3 to 5% one day correction is winding up. But who knows when.

Do you feel lucky?

I officially now have the opinion this market has entered into "the unhealthy zone". Once the pullback starts it's going to be of the vicious variety.

The programs will most likely keep the uptrend going, but as is always the case, it will not end pretty.

Advance-decline moving average divergences also point to the correction that's on it's way.

10-5-10: Tuesday - True Trend day

One of the best true trend days that we've seen in quite awhile!

I've posted a chart of the 50,000 volume footprint chart. This chart highlights the amazing high volume one time framing action printed today.

It's one of those unusual structural charts that does not print very often!

Trend Day Metrics in Play:

Volume above 45 day average -- Check

TICK distribution firmly positive with only 1 sub -600 reading all day long -- Check

A/D solid base near +2000 -- Check.

In sync indexes and sectors -- Check

Relentless strength at previous Resistance 1,150 -- Check.

I'm sure that I left a "check" or two out but what a picture perfect trend day to trade.