One More For The Road

We thought our love-fest last night was it for the year, but today's action warrants a post tonight.  Thank you all for the reciprocal acknowledgements : )

I'll be darned if we didn't nail the layup trade higher today!

Volume came in hard today -- so much for a coma Friday.  Geez.  Amazing!

The market printed the biggest initial balance volume print of the year -- if not multiple years.

Only 5 days all year NYSE volume greater than today's end of day volume.

Told you that the programs would strike : )

Volume like this could indicate a fresh auction higher out of balance.  Or be suggestive of a whole bunch of laggards piling in at the wrong time.

Nothing But Love...

The high-odds scenario printed today: A inside-day, balanced session.

Textbook continuation action.

Look for a probe to all time highs coming (tomorrow?)  Simply put, no failure today and the continuation programs are going to get all hot and bothered and push it higher.

But it's going to be Friday and we respect the very possible coma-factor. Downside low odds.

For any brave soul who takes the time out of their valuable life to read my blog:

I LOVE YOU! 

Fed Nirvana

We all knew that is was coming...  

But the "tiny taper" theme makes me laugh.  Blah, blah or not blah, blah -- structure indicated a high odds upside event.

The market is going up folks and I expect the 1806.75's highs of today to get continuation action higher.

Although after big, extended, moves we understand that it's likely for a balanced day session following the fun.  And or an exploration lower to re-balance a bit of short-handed inventory.

Today was very spiky obviously, so it could plunge back into the range after today's close near all time highs.  But this has to be classified as low odds.  

Fluid, baby...

Pre-Fed

Tomorrow is fed day, today was a balanced snoozer.

All indications are for higher prices.

Hello Visual References!

Big gap up off of the overnight 50 day test and rejection.

Despite many thinking that this is all too complicated, to a 3rd grader this all makes sense.  It's just too simple.

Everyone else just out thinks the simplicity.

Nice 5 minute structure cues yet again...

Perfect Balance -- Delayed Post

I'll be darned if hard drive crashes with a bunch of complicated software simply suck wind.  Make that multi-days sucking of wind!  Apple's itunes is as evil to do a fresh install with as a windows 7 failure to boot out of the blue...complete re-store

Balanced day, inside range of prior day, perfection today.

It really can be stunning to see the indexes printing this stuff in such an obvious fashion. One of the most exquisite balanced (and inside range) days that you will ever see. Amazingly so, just perfect.  The astute trader rode this Friday balanced train for big points. 

Reed in the wind?

Buy Response -- Delayed Post

Yet another delayed post.  Hard drive death crashes are not fun. But it beats being Paul Walker and driving my Porsche into a lamp post at 100mph.  I really liked that guy!

Nice balancing action with a minor low below the multi-week range that garnered a nice buy response.

We think higher tomorrow.

Deleyad Post -- Serious Computer Problems

The "fans" have spoken, and we are ditching our video efforts.  Quality is too poor, and the crew does not want to hassle with Screencast.  Plus, I think ego comes into play when speaking the analysis live. My analysis has never sucked more.  Must just be how the brain is wired.

On cue, our favorable take for more upside was dead wrong, as the big red bar printed -- off of the lower high -- into the big gap fill zone.

But as reeds in the wind, we flow with what unfolds and don't get hung up on our prior day's analysis  -- right?

Today offered a nice early session "go with" short as TICK was clearly signifying no messing around to the downside with the huge gap fill just below.  But these can be hard trades to take.  Yet we identified that if it was going to fail, that gap could really juice downside, so no excuse to at least contemplate the trade.

The true trade of the day was the 11:00 counter-trend reversal trade just under VWAP.  Back in the 2008 era, this trade would set up time and time again.  And it still does on big down days, even in bull markets.  On "first day down" big red bars with extreme sediment readings, and volume, there are no higher odds trades than the morning pullback to vwap reversal, and the counter-trend higher reversal at 11:00.

Tomorrow we expect balanced type of day.  Looks down below today's range lows on momentum divergences are good possible buys.  But if she wants to print a sell channel, we will not fight the tape.

A lot of folks are short today as the money flow readings indicate.  So a short covering rally will have some teeth.

Back by popular demand, our audio recap is up.   Today an epic example of a low confidence look down to S2.  The floor trader pivot levels continue to be seized upon by the programs.

5 Points Of Blissful Range

Spectacular 5 point range balance day!  Mondays are getting worse and worse it seems. No program tick all day!

No trades!

Action like this probably resolves itself higher above all time highs tomorrow.  In this market, consolidation shifts the odds for higher prices.

But we will be watchful for any look above and fail fake-outs!

Like Clockwork

We sure nailed this move higher today.  We were all over this being the high odds scenario in our post yesterday.

Other than the day mostly balancing, there is not much to harp on as negative.  All time highs are within spitting distance and unless something changes, they will gun it higher come Monday.

Trying an audio report format today.  Boring day, and just trying to shake things up.  It really is difficult to produce a professional sounding audio report.  But with some practice maybe I can get halfway good at it.  And I like how it will use another part of my brain, and that might excelarate the learning curve, possibly.

See you at the jobs report tomorrow!

Volatility Up!

Our second call for a buy response was correct, and they gunned it to yesterday's range highs today.

Except for the fact that they did it in a manner that foretold a reversal:

1) Morning move up was way too fast, elongated.  Moves like these are prone to reversal, as we have seen time and time again.

2) Momentum diverged at a the minor high zone of yesterday's range highs.  And this minor high, like so many of them, fortold a push lower down to range lows.(Hello crystal ball!)

After the lows were taken out, yet another fascinating TO THE ABSOLUTE TICK mind you, reversal at S2.  And the TICK was south of -1200!   To think that one of the largest financial instruments in the entire world mechanically reversed at this simple and obvious reference -- despite major program selling readings -- never ceases to astound.

Clearly, the trade of the day was to go long the excess tail at S2.  Volatility was up and the subsequent rally from lows was almost a whopping 20 points.  

Given the mechanical low, and the prior two days of poor downwards structure we've previously pointed out, this market is good to go higher tomorrow.

That's the high odds bet.

Let's dig into some intra-day screen shots to highlight the trading metrics!

Destination Shows It's Hand

Our hypothesized buy response higher never did materialize today.

But the move down was ultra-low confidence -- and just too dang slow.  If sellers take too much time to do their thing in this tape, then watch the hell out if short.

Low of the day is the 20 day and there you have the destination trade to chew upon.

The best trade of the day by my eye was to get short the 1st pullback after the break to new lows.  When pullbacks reverse right at the breakdown zone, then it's game on for test of new lows -- especially with small caps leading the charge and intra-market themes largely in line.

2nd trade of the day candidate was the double minor low print to get long right at the daily 20 day. Nothing short of program moonshine!

We think upside tomorrow, unless the downside fake-outs continue, or the market has completely changed!