Friday, February 28, 2014

New Highs and a Rinse Lower

Back on the 13th and the 18th we noted that as auctions age, the more we need to look out for afternoon inventory re-balances.

13th - The market is very extended, due for more consolidation, or maybe even a pullback of some sorts. With this auction really aging now, we will be on the lookout for intra-day afternoon failures.  It feels like that there should be more than a few weak hands longs in this market. 

18th - Death-grind action is here.  Once the ranges get to be under 10 points like today, the auction is clearly getting a bit tired.  Not that it will go down in a fireball, but inventory rinses lower become higher odds to watch out for.

We were a bit early, but not that early.  Sessions on the 24th, 25th and 26th all featured up moves that failed lower.

And today's session utterly tanked just after (you guessed it) 11:00.










Thursday, February 27, 2014

Still in Balance

Nice structural ques once again!

1) Overnight session news look down and fail below 3 day balance shifts odds to buyers -- Check

2) Morning low 7:00, no sellers and watch out for upside -- Check

3) TICK rising while price bases at session highs at 8:00 for a push higher -- Check

4)  Move up just shy of prior day's two day range highs, and consolidates above VWAP with TICK MA firmly above zero (and rising) -- Check

4) Price explores above prior day highs as entry in consolation is the trade of the day!  -- Check

5) Watch the hell out at the minor high zone, as any messing around in this zone will trigger a sell response.  The current regime is to sell highs and buy lows -- Check.

And a blip push higher very late session closed it on highs.  Today's range elevated 7.75 points to 23.  Not huge change.

Despite the session grind higher, it's still inside range. All time highs just a few points above.  At least a look above one would think.





Wednesday, February 26, 2014

2nd Balance Day

The pattern of expanded volatility after decreased volatility was broken today. Today's 15.25 point range close to yesterday's.

So what were the nuances today that the astute trader noted to capitalize upon?

1) 7:00 inventory re-balance look down reversal just like yesterday -- Check.

2) Push higher to previous session's range highs and reversal -- Check.

3) Retest of highs unable to even stop gun previous day's range.  Two more subsequent lower high tests indicated buyers were just not going to get it done today -- Check.

4) A couple of near perfect VWAP reversals the programs jumped upon -- Check.

5) With buyers obviously out of bullets, the programs hit the tape at 11:00 for a swoon to just shy of yesterday's range lows -- Check.

Ironically, as mundane as the day was, it was a very interesting day.

The odds say up, but everybody, and I mean everybody, is expecting this.  We will go with whichever way the breakout out of balance wants to blaze a trail!



Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Balance Day

Markets:
The volatility patterns are holding up as today's range was 13.75 points, exactly half of yesterday's range.   Push, rest.  Push, rest.

Trades:
Classic example of a low momentum (no TICK sub -600) look down and reversal at 7:00, right at the previous range lows.  A perfect rejection here, and it's off to the races, especially as they could have easily filled the gap just below.  No sellers.  

The 8:00 coil at range highs was a fantastic continuation entry with the mechanical low in place.

The 9:30 pullback to VWAP was a valid entry with TICK holding strong and the morning mechanical low in place.  But the day is inside range, and targets had to be small.

The rest of the day was chop.

All-in-all, the day has to be viewed as a bullish consolidation day. Whenever the sellers have their chance and fail, the buyers become emboldened.

Odds are that we just push higher again tomorrow.



Monday, February 24, 2014

Breakout Failure

The all time highs were taken out.  But why did it fail?  Were there any clues?

1) Initial balance a 5 day low volume print. For a multi-month all time highs breakout?

2) TICK only did print +800 once the entire session, and that was the HOD exhaustion -- not something one would expect on an all time highs breakout.

3) A mechanical 9:00 HOD reversal sealed the deal, as the session sold off for the rest of the session.

4) And like we have been mentioning, the volatility pattern has been pause, explode.  Friday's 11.75 point volume, versus today's 27.50 point range

It's always nice when structure makes logical sense!






Friday, February 21, 2014

Snoozer Friday

No fireworks here for a lazy Friday.  Lazy balanced day as price explored up to 1840, and minor high of the overnight session, and then gently sold off to range lows.

Honorable mention trade of the day was buying the afternoon minor low of the A period lows.

But snoozer Friday's are tough.  Only a 11 point range, half of yesterday's range.

This is a huge go, no-go zone.  As Brett points out, New high data is waning here, not a good signal for buyers.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Up Day

Sometimes it's just a marvel to witness how transparent the markets can be.

With the backdrop of our assessment that selling confidence was poor yesterday, the initial balance look down below the prior session's lows, with a huge excess tail and benign TICK ,was the trade of the day.  And with all of the laggard shorts to fuel the move higher, there were many points to be had on that entry.

The day also featured a nice mid-session consolidation long entry trade as well.

We are not hitting on all cylinders with our tactical brief therapy goals, but at least it's nice to note that we are all over structure.

Odds:  They are going to push it up again tomorrow most likely.  Breakout and go or breakout and fail.  Bring it on!






Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Low Confidence Selling

Nice structural ques today:  The 1845 zone was tested and rejected in the 1st hour, just shy of the all time highs.  The reversal occurred exactly at 7:30, indicating mechanical buying.  Retest of lows minor low, the trade of the day.

We will recap the setups and structure in the slides.

In our first slide we clarify our position on odds for tomorrow.









Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Snooze

<< Market >>  Total, utter snoozer day.  No trades of the day other than B period minor low of the overnight session honorable mention.  

We bailed on the session and will bail early tomorrow for appointments.

Death-grind action is here.  Once the ranges get to be under 10 points like today, the auction is clearly getting a bit tired.  Not that it will go down in a fireball, but inventory rinses lower become higher odds to watch out for.

The entire world biased for higher prices from all that I read.  Any red bar that gains traction (with volume) will have plenty of fuel to elongate.



Saturday, February 15, 2014

Strengths Here We Come!


As we have recently discussed, it's quite easy to identify with, and work towards fixing problems.  We have spent a lot of time within this framework.  And we can concur that it does not work all that well.  Spend all of your time fixing problems and you end up on the hamster wheel.  Spend all of your time growing strengths, and you just might capture not just a learning curve, but an expertise curve.  And that's where we want to increase our efforts!  At this juncture, we have our core trading approach in place with consistent results. Now we want to work towards tweaking and honing our craft in proper fashion, with the ultimate goal of becoming a world-class market participant.

Current Problems:
Here is our list of current problems that we want to address.  We are probably not alone here : )

1)  Non-engagement with the markets, afraid to trade:   This can be such a subtle issue that manifests itself in a multitude of sneaky ways.  Justification for non-entry can be quite easy, and also feel quite good.  No risk, no chance of failure.   No possibly of negative brain chemicals.

2) The step-sister of number one is non-engagement with the markets after booking a winning trade.  When observed high-odds opportunities necessitate engagement, entry is not taken due to the scarcity mindset of not wanting to lose recent gains. Positive brain chemicals are so valued, the brain is hijacked into not being interested messing with any situations that might interfere with such a positive state. Winning days not maximized.

3) The bi-polar opposite of 1 and 2 is a compulsive bias for increased risk seeking (re-entry) after a losing trade.  Literally, there is a hunger to risk-seek at the worst time -- when not seeing structure clearly.  The psychology is simple: negative brain chemicals don't feel good.  And a fresh trade keeps the hope alive that negative chemicals can be replaced with positive chemicals.  Once again, brain chemicals are in control, hijacking the brain into giving a rat's ass about profitability, only positive chemicals.   I've racked up harrowing losses more than once spinning within this vortex of doom.

4) Lack of patience:  This problem typically manifests itself via fear.  The fear of missing a move versus waiting for the identified zone.  It can also manifest out of boredom and a need for action.

5)  Shorting up-trending markets/trend days: There is something innate in the brain that wants to fight and be the hero.  We have by and large come close to mastering this issue, but it still manifests itself frequently.  And total non-engagement of up markets is really a form of this issue.  Even if not actively in the market shorting, my brain is still shorting the market if not considering long positions.  My brain will short down markets with ease most of the time.

6) Poor ATR management: This problem is very obvious but can be insidious. Metrics of a basketball court never change.  Same length width, and height for every game.  The market's "length, width, and height" vary wildly.  But my brain's natural tendency is to view the market with this bias of sameness.  Unless targets are adjusted for volatility, then it is very easy to truncate winners unnecessarily. As a general example, a 5 point mechanical winner with ATR at 10, is quite different than a 5 point mechancial winner when ATR is 40.  I've shot myself in the foot by taking out 5 points when my target should have been 20 points.  And that really hurts performance. We want to be better at targeting the same % of the day's ATR as volatility expands and contracts.

7) Self-loathing and negativity:  This is one easy trap to fall into.  It's probably a chronic issue for almost all traders in one form or another. We have come a long way.  But we have so much work to do.

8) Lack of consistent exercise and nutritional regime:  Nuff said.

Strengths:
With such enormous problematic headwinds facing us, we now layout our strengths with the goal of becoming learning machines. And to move forward with the philosophy of building these strengths so the unneeded problems simply fall away.

1) We fully embrace and understand how important it is to embrace trading as a performance activity.  We are actively working towards extensive deliberate practice and continual performance-based learning practices as we strive to be an engine of continuous evolution.  This is our primary vehicle in which to develop ourselves and move beyond problematic tendencies.  Brief therapy goals set each day and graded accordingly.

2) We are persistent, every single one of us. Change is hard.  Make that, change is very, very hard.  It's constant falling down and then getting back up.  But never giving up.

3) We are, as this article delineates it, multidimensional thinkers. And this is not an easy skill to attain.  We know that because it's taken us years -- and we are still working on it.  Biases can be very entrenched but we have developed the ability to really know ourselves.  To be the Observer.

4)  A step-sister strength of number 2, we know our weaknesses. Being so able to articulate our weaknesses and problems above is a huge strength in and of itself.

5) Excellent records keeping:  Daily journal, video recording, blogging, chartbook database.

So with that, we move forwards, via our strengths to gain the skills necessary to let our problem tendencies fall away.

Friday, February 14, 2014

Easy Post

The market went up today.  Done!   How's that for nailing it?  Be sure to hit the donate button.  lol

We note that today's volatility of 22.75 points was comparable to yesterday's 24.75 points.  Pre-holiday, the buyers just kept the foot on the gas, volume only slightly lower.

The exact 12:00 high reversal a bit of a concern.  Mechanical HOD prints must be noted.

This is not rocket science and the current environment is fantastic for those who can go with the flow.  Not always easy, I know...  Intra-day, the same patterns are playing out over and over, indicating nice, high-odds, entries.





Thursday, February 13, 2014

Inventory still utterly out of balance.

So what's wrong with a bit of Olympic pride here and there Day Tripping Traders?

That said, the new theme is based upon the eagle being one fine top predator.  And that's what we want running through our minds around here.  When the storms come in, eagles love them while others hide.  They can lock their winds and soar! And eagles can see their prey at a long distance, something we fancy as a good trading skill to have.

<< Market >> 10+ point gap down nothing but a chance for weak shorts to feel instant regret, as a trend move spawned from the open and powered higher.

Yesterday's 12 point range spawned into a 24.75 point range today.  Power, base.  Power, base.

1st trade of the day that fit our criteria perfectly was the half hour long base near highs just after the close of initial balance. TICK firmly entrenched above zero with no negative readings to speak of.  This pattern, time and time again, sets the stage for balance to resolve itself with a push higher.

2nd trade of the day was buying the minor pullback just after 9:00. Again, no TICK to even -500, MA above zero, and the pattern repeats.

<< Odds >>  High odds scenario of price exploring to at least all time highs. Q's already there  We note small cap weakness as a potential flag. 

The market is very extended, due for more consolidation, or maybe even a pullback of some sorts. With this auction really aging now, we will be on the lookout for intra-day afternoon failures.  It feels like that there should be more than a few weak hands longs in this market. 







Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Consolidation

<< Market >> Inside range, consolidation day as expected after yesterday's trend day.  Look above yesterday's trend day action range highs and fail, trade of the day.  So too, was the 9:00 gap fill lows reversal.   Other than that a snoozer.

Today's range was 12 points versus yesterday's 25.25 points, as volume sank.

<<Odds>> Odds analysis similar to yesterday.  High odds scenario of price exploring to at least all time highs.   Yet, the market is very extended, due for more consolidation, or maybe even a pullback of some sorts.