Gap!

Nice morning continuation trade to be had with small caps excelling to the upside.

Big victory for the buyers today as the action today was that of a young auction.

Here comes last day of the month.

And then the 1st day of the month.

And we go from there!

Last Day Of March.

Gap And Go!

Friday Consolidation

Oh boy, consolidation today.

Just a totally dead day.

Inside range coma!

In this market, shifts odds to the buyers.

No Sellers

We got a bit of a lift after yet another minor gap down.   Over 20 point range today with the VIX way up.

But what disturbs me is that sellers came in mechanically right at 11:00.

And now with price so close to range swing lows, I'm suspecting that some stops could be tested lower.

I'm mixed for tomorrow.  I think the usual will happen -- low confidence sellers will be punished but am on watch for a look down.

Double Distribution #2

Morning downside double distribution breakout -- no edge here.  Sure, it's a downtrend now but I had no edge to game a significant break down out of balance like this.

Selling is low confidence and daily is at the trend line.

Still thinking bounce.

Buyers Lurking?

Very odd, low-confidence double distribution formation today as the entire morning balance gave way to a downside breakout that closed almost on lows of the session.

18 handle range with vix up.

But no volume increase.

Utterly neutral advance/declines.

No program tick readings.

Just bullshit grind that I firmly expect to be re-traced -- if not tomorrow.

But...

The daily Reversal zone is just above.  And it could user in more selling if the down trend catches an Ask-trend.  Plus this market has a tendency to feature creeper sell days that are setting a new paradigm for downside market structure.

And screwing with me.

Good Trading Day!

First a VIX note:

We are going to note keenly the 1st hour balance breakout as the trade of the day.

Early session balance like this with such skewed TICK is such an ultra-high-odds go with breakout trade.  They don't come around too often, but more often than not, they are money.

First off, gold and oil monthly take as both are signaling potential position trades that could produce significant reversals:

Gold:

A lot of minor lows and basing at such a key zone --

Oil: 

No Real Selling

A down day but they could not test the panic 5 minute bar from yesterday's fed mayhem.

And this is a key reference.

Clearly the sellers to managed a pathetic push lower that utterly failed, signals that the session today was buying-continuation-balance.

Yet, I'm utterly petrified that there are stops to be had in that panic bar from yesterday, so I think upside but with trepidation of a stop gun.

But, clearly, don't out-think this bull.

Odds up for tomorrow!

Fed Fun

So what happened today?

The web was apparently well-spun by Janet and shorts were caught in a panic.

BUT, just short of all time highs price stopped.

Odds are for a retrace of this panic move.

But with the all time high liquidity zone just above, I don't write off the buyers so easily.

Tomorrow could just well be a great trading day opportunity.

Possible go with selling.

Possible go with/sell new high zone.  

Zombie Day

The pattern has been for grinder up days to be re-balanced early in the session, only to rebound from then on.  With no major support zones breached, or even tested.

And these zombies can take it up all day long without a measurable pullback on ultra-low volume.  Don't mess with them.

All hail Fed day tomorrow.

Let the games begin!

Sellers On A Rope?

Lots of nuances today on the 5 minute.

Yesterday's long inventory re-balanced, with late session short in the hole move to above VWAP.

I'm still suspecting that buyers are going to take charge again in this zone as the high odds play.

That or this is consolidation for another push lower.

Oil interest juncture!

Bull Grinder

Once the sellers could not even breach VWAP, it was a long hold for the day, as the sellers relented into the last hour for a move to R2.

After two days of piss poor selling, we thought this would happen.

So we expect that today was day one of a swing higher, although clearly it should have been higher confidence.  But it does not take much for the grind higher to continue in this market.

Downside Balance Grind

Ok, folks.

No bounce materialized today.

Just pure balance.  11 point range day.

Dollar and bonds trend moves higher.

Is today a balance-continuation-type setup for lower prices?

Or will a hard-hitting up move unfold?

This low confidence grind lower is not easy to trade.

Finding the jewel trades in this stuff not easy, but we point them out today in hindsight.

First off dollar and bonds.

Daily looks like it just might bounce.  If not, then sub 2000 levels are on the radar. 

Low Confidence Grinder Lower

A very low confidence down day in the indexes and we smell potential reversal up move in the cards.

Jobs Report Tank

Jobs report friday and morning balance broke down hard for a firm trend move.

TICK is your tell this breakout move.

Market Waiting For Jobs Report

Nice Day

Utterly perfect trading day, based upon the structure that we initiate trades with.

Trade #1 - 7:30, S2, TICK diverging, large excess tail, no big volume coming in.

Trade #2 - 9:47 minor high reversal above morning highs.

Trade #3 - Afternoon King VWAP.  'nuff said.  This reference can be so utterly powerful.  Rinsed by a tick and POW! 

EOD 

Bull Market Inventory Adjustment

Typical inventory adjustment lower and ended with a 9:00 minor reversal low zone at s2.

Not the type of stuff to hang your hat on for continuation lower at the VWAP.

Sellers have their chance here to pick it up.

Buyers are not scared.

Game on.

New Month and Up!

1st day up ramp higher out of the gate.

Then balance.

Then late session breakout higher.

VIX looking to test 12.

Higher we go.