Thursday, June 10, 2010

Where was the Volume Today?


I didn't hear anyone else mention this, but today's up move came on signficantly low volume.

So low, in fact, that not one of the 30 minitue periods printed anything close to thier 45 day average volume figures.

Yesterday, the afternoon selloff, printed the last 5 periods above the 45 day average.

Just a metric to ponder as the markets rally.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Broken Uptrend Leads to Afternoon Liquidation



This is a textbook example of what happens when what should happen does not!

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Trade of the Day: Reversal at Morning Range Lows


Significant rotations are highly likely most days within the first hour and a half of trade, it always pays to be on watch for them.

Also, not noted in the annotated chart, is that the morning session highs printed exactly at 9:00 pacific. "Nooner" programs as they are dubbed make this time one of the most likely reversal points during the trading day. And it happened once again today!

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Fade the UP/Down Volume Internal and Get the Horns!


As the indexes swooned on Friday, here is a chart of the UP/Down volume that I find a strong "tell" in support of the 8 EMA grind lower.

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Great Example of a Tricky Trading Day


So what makes a day "tricky"? Not that each day is a smooth boat ride down the river but today's action was a day where you got hosed if you were not careful.

1) Gap fill long reversal trade in morning worked perfectly with taking profits at VWAP. Here is where, it probably would be best to take your money and run.

2) Descending triangle below the VWAP, broke news lows in a rather decent range expansion move to the downside. Given that internals were totally neutral to positive, this is a trade that does not work all that often.

3) Buy response from lows kept grinding upwards for the remainder of the session.

The improbable range break down morphs into counter-trend grind up of eternity. This can get tricky for the mind indeed.

Not great trading structure but it's nice that my level of experience kept me out of harms way.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Anatomy of a Successful VWAP Pullback.


Today printed a great example of a buy able pullback to the VWAP within the context of an uptrend.

Let's try to identify the metrics:

Morning Trend Up:
1) Early session value establishes itself above the VWAP.
2) 1st test of VWAP after establishment of value above prints a rejection tail with just a tick or two of rinse.
3) Morning trend is slow and consistent to the upside. VB delta prints mostly green and cumulative delta, Up volume, A/D readings are all in up trends. TICK is in high-momentum mode and printing lots of 800 and 1000 readings.
4) The TICK moving average stays above zero and the cumulative TICK indicator is green and increasing.

Pullback from Range Highs:
1) Weak volume on pullback from range highs. VB deltas don't support increasing selling with no readings printing beyond -6000
2) TICK extremes down fail to print -800 and stay within -600 threshold.
3) The TICK extreme outlier to the downside, tagging -800+, is right at/or near major reference VWAP reversal point.
4) The reversal follow through to the upside is supported with increased volume and VB deltas.