Explosion Higher

Market --
Our crystal ball was correct about the market potentially grinding higher again.  And we properly noted that the auction was "young" on Friday.   Friday's range was 35.75, Monday 9.75, and today 25.25.  That's pound, consolidate, pound...

Trade of the day was getting long the 1st mini pullback with the TICK hardly able to even print readings below zero. Missed that?  Then the 2nd weakling pullback to VWAP was entry.  And from there folks, price pounded higher with Goldilocks at the wheel and price never was able to breach even the 8MA until the last half hour brought in some selling.  With the TICK MA firmly above zero and no negative program TICK whatsoever, the trend is most likely always your friend!

Odds --
Today prints 5th day in a row of sucker-punch action to the sellers. This has the high odds scenario of price exploring to at least all time highs.   Yet, the market is very extended, and always due for consolidation after a trend day.  Maybe even a pullback of some sorts.

Strengths --
We are working on it.  To post later. We are on a quest to develop more robust processes for becoming more of who we already are.

Consolidation -- Looks Bullish

Market: 
Yet another Monday snoozer.  Inside range, clear grinder higher "check mark" structure today with two clean entries.  1) Morning weak look down out of balance and 8:00 reversal.  2) Mid-session basing action above VWAP resolved higher exactly at 11:00 (as per usual).  TICK  MA was basing above zero during the base and that was the money tell once again. Exit minor high of previous session.

Odds: 
Consolation like today, inside range, shifts odds for higher prices tomorrow.  That said, we are at a potential reversal zone.  Buyer Bots a tough crowd to fight, however.

Incremental Learning:  

Incremental learning practices are something that we quite frequently forget to do around here, but at least we are persistent enough to keep getting back upon the horse.  And we are mounted up. Let's ride!

We did a lot of process analysis over the weekend and have come away with a rather robust list of brief therapy goals we are fully conscious of and working on. Our patterns are very clear now through the years.  Yet it is very easy to focus only on problem behaviors.  Brett always hammers home how important it is to "know your strengths and build robust processes for becoming more of who you already are".

But folks, this is not easy!  

Our natural inclinations are to problem focus.

And our current list of problems is way bigger than our strengths -- so far.  We know that there are more strengths in there that we don't give ourselves credit for. Ironically, we could make it a problem to not see strengths better.  When someone is good at something, it's really easy to not notice it, because it feels so natural.

And of course, problems are glaring.

What we are grappling with now is how to fix a clear problem behavior while attempting to view it through the lens of a strength lurking in there somewhere.

Maybe we are crazy to even try.   But will keep this pushing to figure it out.

Today:

Power Higher

This guy sure knows what experimentation and deliberative practice are all about. Geez!   His amygdala HAS to be short-circuited out.   What an amazing world record!  "Practice, training, experimenting ,while pushing through the pain is what magic is to me".

It really is amazing to hear about this study linking body posture to hormone regulation in the body.  The body can lead the mind.  Strike a power pose and your biology kicks in increasing testosterone.  Strike a low power pose, and cortisol increases.  The implications are just astounding for performance disciplines such as trading.   Being self aware of our non-verbal body language can really change our lives!

     "Our bodies change our minds

     ...and our minds change our behavior

...and our behavior change our outcomes."

The Market:
Well, our radar was correct in sensing the the market could grind higher.  And today's structure was the most textbook, bull-market, check mark structure that you will ever see!

Buyers are in control!

Yet, being at the previous balanced highs on the daily, a sell response of some sort could trigger.

But we are biased up.

Short In The Hole

Nice little gap up today and some nifty morning buying drove price up to the lows of the previous balanced zone on the daily. Imagine that?

And then it as the session was a snoozer.

Our assessment yesterday was correct that the market was very short and the mechanical low of yesterday was a  major flag to indicate a potential short in the hole unfolding.

Jobs report tomorrow will whip things.  If no punishing downside, then my radar is out for this market to potentially start grinding higher again.    But that's getting ahead of myself.

I want to write more about Dr. Brett's tweets, but have been too busy helping others and healing from the surgical chop shop!  Geez!

Like To Gamble?

Today:
The market printed a textbook 7:30 reversal trade at S1 and the lows from two days ago.  Perfect!  It then ground to highs only to then base for the rest of the session.  We will tag and bag this trade in the slides.

Commentary:

This is quite a number, if true.  Americans lost $119 billion dollars last year gambling.   Twice that of any other country. So why is it that Americans are willing to toss 119 bil down the toilet when they know that the game is rigged?

Why?

Why did the entire globe choose to lose around $440 billion last year?
If you were to poll all of these losers, my bet is that most of them will be all working hard to save a buck by shopping online or getting up early for black Friday sales. And none are going to be ok with being short changed 5 bucks.

So let's look at some of the reasons given and see if they make sense.  And see how traders fall into the same traps.

1) Escapism, entertainment and boredom: Don't buy it. Boredom won't get you on a plane to Vegas, nor will the great shows. There is more to the grand scheme. But I can say that boredom is a big trading trap that can cause all sorts of losses.  If you are engaging the markets out of boredom versus a high odds opportunity, then you join the gamblers and pay your money to the house.

2) Social Activity:  Sure betting is part of American culture.  But I'm not so sure that this is the biggie reason behind the $440 billion payout to casinos.  Not applicable to trading really.

3) Excitement and Thrill:  Ah, now we are getting somewhere.  Brain chemicals! To my eye (and brain) this is the main culprit.  People simply are not self aware enough to understand what's happening to them as they get hijacked by dopamine rushes.  And these brain chemicals are so powerful that they are worth $440 billion dollars to chase.  No high from brain chemicals, no throwing of $440 billion into the toilet.  And the games are rigged to give you so many little wins (dopamine rushing), that it can be addicting.

This is a big reason why trading is so hard too.  It's so easy to make feeling good the major priority and not putting on high odds trades.  And for some traders, the chemicals are so strong that they will lose it all in search those chemicals.  I've had quite a few destructive days myself due to not being able to face losses and wanting good feeling brain chemicals, not the bad ones.

4) Self-Esteem:  Casinos rolling out the red carpets and free stuff no doubt helps promotes the desire to gamble.  But only the minority ever get to this point.  So I don't find this to be a compelling reason.  Trader media tries to make trading a glamours get rich game by putting lavish lifestyles on the front page of their publications.  But the minority that does win don't get any perks from the brokers.

5) Self-delusion:  I believe this one is a big culprit, along with the brain chemicals.  Same in trading.  You think that you're going to get lucky, or that you know more than you do.

Missing from article: Frustration: I feel as though this article misses one key point; Frustration.  After losing 4 hands in a row, 10 pulls of the lever in a row, or 4 trades in a row, frustration can really escalate.  Once the brain is frustrated, this fight or flight mode causes blood flows away from the pre-frontal cortex and all executive reason is gone.

And it just may be gone long enough to gamble/trade until broke.

Sobering...  

Balance As Expected

ALL day with mom and an open wound on my face!

Will post hopefully tomorrow.

Nice trading day today.

True Trend Day

True trend days down are relatively rare (especially after last year!), so let's look at the clues that helped us to identify unfolding structure and to stay on the right side of trade.

1) 1st trading day of the month can be trendy.

2) We were cognizant of washing machine 5 day balance.  A Break of this range could have legs -- up or down.

3) Multi-day IB volume breakout higher. And noting volume on track to finish for a 6 month high print.

4) Goldilocks price action on the 5 minute.  Not too fast, not too slow.  Retrace action higher fast line MA reversal and with fresh price breakdowns to lower levels.

5) Momentum: TICK MA never did breach zero line with pressure staying solidly lower all day.  A/D and up/down volume firmly trending -- Firmly trending sediment on a non-gap day always a strong tell.

Tomorrow:
1) High odds balance.

2)  The look down below today's trend day range and failure trades can be splendid.

3) A push higher that fails.

4) We will not be shocked to see buyers coming in, causing a short squeeze for a big green bar.  But I think this is lowest odds to happen.

5) I'm sure that the market will pick some other scenario!