Structure Rules!

It's so cool when the structural analysis just "jumps off of the screen".

And right on cue the bounce has started, like we pointed out in our 1st slide in yesterday's post. 

Nice trading day today -- and high confidence when married with our high-odds assessment of yesterday.

A trend day session made complete-total-structural-sense and the trade of the day was a mid-session continuation move higher.

I just love this stuff!

GREAT TRADING DAY!!!!!!

Wonderful action on the 5 minute chart for today's session.

The true trade of the day was the minor low print and excess tail of yesterday's range lows.  This market is printing minor lows day after day after day after day. And the price action leading into today's trade was low confidence which made the trade even more juicy.  And the S1 reference level was right there too.

This market is continuing to creep lower in the most low confidence fashion possible.

Should the buyers not step in hard soon, I will be shocked.

We have some wonderful price action to feature in tonight's slides on the 5 minute.

Another Minor Low

Let another daily range minor low early going that provided a nice buying opportunity.

The programs shut the party down at 9:00 pacific for a reversal and balance for rest of the session.

Double minor lows her tell me no sellers.

Or are the sellers winding up?

Risk is to the sellers tomorrow, unless they come in hard.  In which case, you go with them.

Two way auction on tap today as the range lows were tested and a minor low printed.

2nd double distribution day.

The minor low has to be respected for the buyers to dog pile onto tomorrow.  But I'm equally worried that sellers and going to jump into ring once again.

 Like yesterday, I have no real bias to work with.

Intra-say was tough but offered up some clues as usual.  We had no trades of the day print today.

Too Short

We knew the risks.  A lot of short inventory.

Today's 8:00 look down and fail, and subsequent triangulation, was the all clear for the buyers to hit the gas and print a rather awesome double distribution breakout trend move.

Structure foretold enough for high odds trades.

Tomorrow will be interesting to see who can take the baton!

Buyers have the nod.  But a don't count out sellers for a retest of lows.

Another Nice Trading Day

Today's trade of the day set up perfectly.  The low confidence move lower after a trend day, it is a real wheelhouse trade.

I would come up with a catchy name for the setup but all leave that to the commercial types.

So here are all of the structural cues:

    >> prior day true trend down

     >> 1 hour and 1/2 of low confidence balancing action at the beginning of  the session.      
 
     >>  neutral extreme sediment readings
 
     >> breakout lower out of balance pauses at 9:00, the most notorious reversal times of them all!
 
     >> and the 9:00 zone also corresponded with the overnight lows and S1
 
     >> with a big fat tick divergence on the retest of the lows to boot
       

From there are your target was the VWAP.

For Monday, inventory is very short.  Yet, are seller innovators at work?  That's something I'm really pondering.

It's a dangerous battle for both sides and I'm staying fluid with no desire to fight this market.

Hello Big Red

After yesterday's Fed balance, a true trend day unfolded today with ES volume 2.5X normal, A/D sediment -2500 and price down 2%.

A classic institutional trend day.

Hello Big Red!

So many times, during this bull market, big volume down moves like this have been bought.

With all of the short inventory, we have to be on the lookout for a two way auction process short covering tomorrow.

But, there is always the possibility that a we may have a solid downtrend on our hands.

But that is a scenario that will have to prove itself.

Should any buying start to take hold tomorrow after a low confidence move lower, one must be very careful stepping in front of that train.

We feature the trade of the day quite a lot around here.  But today's trade of the day gets special allocations for being structurally perfect.  You won't find a better mid-session continuation short set up.

VIX up over 27%.  You have to love it.