Afternoon Base

The afternoon base was a bit puzzling.   If shorts were trapped, then that triangle gets bought.  

So I'm leaning bearish going into tomorrow but with low confidence.  

 

Great Trade Idea

 Today, the naz and iwm folks were selling off while the es held her own.  

The trade of the day was to see this and pounce. 

Down We Go!!

 Not bad:  Serious explosion!

So it's been over two years since a blog post.  Throughout the last two years, I've posted many times in my brain.  But I'm working now and have a very busy practice.  Trading, by comparison, is chump change.

But let's look at today, after the 10% rout.

This is different this time versus the last true bear in 2008.

Bottom line:  I don't know.  I'm thinking lower, lower, lower...  That, or a massive short covering rally in the cards.

All of the reasons aside,  I don't think this market goes massively lower.

Evidence of panic: https://www.intellectualtakeout.org/article/coronavirus-mass-hysteria

I feel a lot of the selling is margin calls.  Too many too comfortable for too long.  No free lunch folks.

See you tomorrow.  I really miss blogging.  Go take a cruise tomorrow and enjoy life.

The Grind is On?

This is just the action we expected after Friday's V-rebound. 

Don't out think this stuff. 

If they keep doing this, without a major reversal, then it could go on for weeks back to highs.

Not getting ahead of myself but I'm keeping that option open in the head, so I don't out think it.

Corrections can look really scary.

The Game is Still On

Fantastic day today.

And the destination trade was the 200day.

You do not get a softball like this very often.

Hear this astute trader?

I didn't seek out to see if anyone else saw this, but I didn't hear anyone talking about it.

My best guess is the the upwards grind probably kicks in to gear.  Such a mechanical bounce shifts the odds greatly.

But we will see.

Plus the VIX spike will have to be viciously attacked.

Dump Back to Lows

It was obvious out of the gate that sellers were in control and were on a mission to re-balance yesterday's long inventory. 

Trade of the day was to sell VWAP test at 11:00. 

If not short there, a sell of range lows for the destination trade to prior lows was a great trade. 

110 point range today folks. 

Short in the Hole

They could not get it down, so they punched it just after 11:00 and the session printed green.  

Trade of the day was to buy the VWAP being punched through.