Buyer Feast

This talk sure displays some creative ways to change perspectives.  I want to see the movie for sure!  I just love birds of prey (only because they don't eat me).   This is the last thing Mr. Hamster wants to see!  And I like to strive for edge like this while engaging the marketplace.

<< Analysis: >> We gave the nod to buyers last night and, sure enough, the dog-pile-on materialized on cue as the well-trained buyers did their thing. Same thing with the well-trained and VERY PTSD shorts. Volume sucked but who cares?

Buyers will have the nod for tomorrow.  I'm way overdue to be wrong, but it's going to take some big bad news event to stop the expected outcome -- of this market going higher.

The last two up days were low confidence, but who really cares? Right?

Little Buying

Our bias was correct.  Some buying did come in today, but it was muted.

It didn't take long for the trade of the day to setup and it was a beauty.  A minor low look down below yesterday's range lows that reversed right at 7:30 and the programs ripped it higher.  But the move petered at  yesterday's value area high for an end of day P formation print.

Even the slightest bit of green today could trigger a buyer-dog-pile-on to the long side once again.

But utilities are the leading ES sectors by a wide margin, and unless risk seeking sectors come to life, today was just a bit a short covering most likely. And today's up move breached no upside levels to indicate high confidence.

With the 50 day tagged today, I'm going to give the buyers the nod for tomorrow, but if sellers come to life, today's long inventory will get squished quickly.

Here comes earning season in stocks.

NFLX

Red Again. Now Bottom of the Range

Well, we were just plan correct in our analysis that more selling was to going to show it's hand.

Today's session broke from morning balance, much like Friday's session.  With volume up, and with Friday's range lows serving as resistance for morning balance, the sellers hit the gas.

Knowing that inventory was still out of balance to the downside, two trades of the day setup. The morning triangle at range lows and the afternoon VWAP reversal.

Today was a PERFECT trading day!

Like we point out in the slides, we need to start worrying now about inventory being too short.  And at range lows: 1) the market bounces; 2) looks down and fails to bounce; 3) or just plane pukes again.  4) Or a combination of all three!

I'm calling a bounce attempt as the most high odds scenario.

Red Day

We got the expected upside push early on, but the move failed miserably to morph into a trend day lower.  We hated the move up for much of the week, anticipating a Big Red push lower, and it finally printed today.

Volume way up and the range expanded to 36.75 points from yesterday's 12 point range.  I'm telling you, when laggard moves higher print such low daily ranges, WATCH OUT!

Will sell in May print in April?

Will responsive buyers jump in?

I think sellers have more work to do before we worry too much about short in the hole rearing it's head.

Weak Sellers

We made a call for Red and that's what we got but in a rather minimal fashion!   Well, sort of, as the day finished up two ticks.

Low volume, low confidence price action chop lower printed a minor low of the prior session (TRADE OF THE DAY).  Then hungry buyers rocketed price back up to value area high.

So, all today did was rinse out a bit of weak hand inventory, inside range of the prior session.  And that, folks, shifts odds for further upside.  Unless some sort of negative news hits, the sellers have no chance but to endure an upside push.

Lots of good structural cues today on the 5 minute.  For a 12 point range day, it was a great trading day.

Today we will also start featuring a stock or two of the day to broaden out this diary.

Stocks: K relative volume way up before the launch! 

Not Impressed

They pulled off a grinder higher today to confirm the new all time highs.

But with a 10 point range, I'm not impressed.

I'm doubling down on my assessment that this market is high risk for a Big Red, fully embracing that it could keep zombie grinding higher just fine, ya'all.

Gap and Grind

The market is in classic grind up mode.  Three gaps up in a row, and three intraday balanced sessions.

So now the market sits a sliver above all time highs.  

Look above and fail back into the range?  Or big green power higher tomorrow? Or just another grinder higher day?

This 3 day swing move up is VERY low confidence.  Most of the movement initiated from the overnight sessions.   

But happy buyers must chase to stay happy.