Truncated journal today. Multi-hour slow moves just put me to sleep. I need to dig deeper during days like this. But it's easier said than done. It was a spectacularly symmetrical day on the 5 minute. But I just could not tune in to it today.
Journal:
Morning
Overview: After yesterday's power move up and fail, the market was set for a overnight swoon back to near yesterday's open. Overnight inventory is short, so let's see what happens. Inside range overnight. Value is not going anywhere yet.
6:53: Looks like A period is going to close as a tight base of 3 points. Tick is weak but not hugely so.
1st noted cue that notes lack of downside odds.
7:05: B period open drive lower and the 1st break out of balance. Looking down to below yesterday's range lows and slight bounce. We will watch for possible entry long here. But with the range so tight today, I'm not in a big hurry to start jumping in even with simulated money.
These really tight balance IB's can be easy to out think. Just think odds-based and go with what unfolds. If today was to bust out to the downside, it probably would have done so right here.
7:09: Long 1391.75. This is a decent reference and sediment and inter-market themes are mostly neutral. Worth a shot for a move above A period and possible gap fill attempt. Small stop of 3 point below the lows. With the ATR range so tight, this gives me decent leeway to survive another rinse down. There is no big gap fill reference right below this entry, so I think it has a decent shot at bouncing.
Good assessment of daily volatility. And good to zoom out and look for bigger picture visual magnates.
7:30: Initial balance is in and no bounce. Scratch for -1.5. It becomes continuation down now. Reverse 1390.25 short with 3 point stop. Scratch that -1.5 and reverse. Long 1391.25.
Lots of good stuff here. I regret reversing my initial long trade. There were probably not enough downside cues to justify a short just below yesterday's range lows. But it was an effective experiment. You were able to reverse your 1st long to short, see that the downside TICK extreme had no follow through for the short trade, and then reverse again to the long side. This sequence probably puts you in the top % of all humans. It is not easy to change a bias with money and ego on the line.
7:45, TICK break out to +1000 and looks like our 1396.75 target has a shot. I think they at least try and take it into the gap.
7:57: Increase target to 1397.75. A period look above in play now. TICK in continuation move I think.
Good assessment here. I wish that I kept the journal going but it was just so slow that opted to bow out. I regret this fact, as there were many opportunities to experiment with.
9:22: Without much excitement here is our fill.
Nothing wrong with a winning trade!
10:30: Sleepy day and our exit was a good one.
