Red Bar Coming To Visit

In one of our slides last night we pointed out that odds were higher for the market to resolve higher.  But we also talked about a possible failure lower, and how we would go with it!

I liked our analysis. (Despite the irony of being out of the office for the 1st Monday puke bar in the last 5 years!)

For the selling today to start so late in the session, at 9:00 and out of low-confidence balance, was a tad sneaky.  But -1000 TICKs printed hard and fast, volume increased significantly, and price never did close above the 8 EMA fast line.  And, clearly, there was no upside TICK to speak of.

The 5 minute chart nuances today were loud and clear.

Here are a few a bi-polar thoughts: With strong trepidation, I am still expecting buying to come in. If not, then we are all over any high-confidence selling that shows it hand.  For tomorrow, post trend day action, consolidation is the high odds bet.

This market is so hugely extended.  And we have a lower high on our hands. Someday it's just going to keep selling.  Someday.  Not making a call but am cognizant of this possibility.  Seems impossible, but someday : )