Friday, October 2, 2015

Week: 9-28 - 10-2

9-28-15 Monday
42 point range

Here is some structural analysis for you: Hello Monday!

Vicious trend down day.  Morning VWAP reversal with sediment extreme the true trade of the day.  Volume not huge upside, so it was not totally obvious that such a day would unfold.  But sediment was a huge clue that was not to be ignored.

Shorts are really short now.  So if a short covering rally materializes, go with it.

Really go with it!

But with daily range lows so close at hand, a test of them has to be the high odds play at this juncture.  A minor low failure there could be the destination trade for a short covering rally trade.













9-29-15
range: 28 points
Structural Analysis: some classic structure printed today with a mostly inside range balanced session with sediment neutral extreme. With this type of structure, look down's below the prior day trend days lows are typically buy-able. In the last half hour looked down was the trade of the day to go long back to VWAP.

The structure is also something that buyers can hang their hats on for tomorrow session. It would not surprise me at all if the buyers step in here, or if a look down occurs tomorrow it gets bought.








9-30-15
Range: 24
Structural Analysis: The big range days continue to print and our analysis yesterday was spot on.  Morning balance gave away to a 9:00 downside breakout for a destination trade to the prior session's highs, minor low, and reversal.   

Trade of the day was to buy the minor low of prior session's highs.  

The down trend line is still firmly in place and I'm not sure how to handicap the 1st day of the month other than it will probably be at least a 20 point range up or down!  















10-1 Thursday
Range 27 points
Structural Analysis: sure enough we got a big range day. Early in the session it was balance with just a minor high of yesterday's range highs. This nuance set the stage for a look lower.  Tight coiling action at range lows broke down but stopped prior to yesterday's range lows. From there a higher low transitional structure triggered a powerful move back up to range highs.

It was interesting how you could just "feel" that it was the first day of the month as price was thrown around by the big boys like a rag doll, especially on the upside surge!











10-2
Structural Analysis: Well, we thought up, but the only tricky part is that "up" came from a large gap down.  But structure was clear: It's going higher.

Trade of the day was to go long the mid-later-session consolidation above VWAP.











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