Narrative, Visualization Exercise and After-Hours Report:

After Hours Report:
What I liked about today was that it was a near perfect example of structural concepts acting just as they should. A period elongated excess tail = high-odds move to upside -- especially following an inside range day. TICK distribution was textbook, so was price action, for the trend day. There will be days that go up like this without textbook structure. But it's very low odds that a day will fail with structure that printed today.

NYSE Volume: 3,403 million
Globex Session Visualization Guess: Balanced to slightly down.
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7:30--
Structure: Value is slightly higher than yesterday. The initial balance value area low is right at the top of yesterday's value area high. The initial balance highs looked above the overnight inventory highs and closed at the overnight highs (Now that is a wordy mouth full!). A period was an open drive move above the overnight highs. There is an 6 point A period excess tail.

Sediment is neutral and intermarket themes are mixed with the bonds flat and the dollar down.

Visualization & Odds: Today is a high probability candidate to be a typical low volatility bull market grinder up type of day. Yesterday's inside range day adds upside fuel.

There is that big A period excess tail!

Tactics: Look to buy low volume pullbacks or coils near range highs. Forget short trades.

Range/ATR 5min: 9 points
NYSE Vol:1,061,000 at 8:00
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:+1200/+270k
Sector Skew:152/up - 22 down
Most Up/Down Sectors:
coal +4%, industrial metal, 3.58%, steel 3.35%, airlines +3% basic resources 3.12%
industrial supplies -.71%, footwear -.50%, tobacco -.35%

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Grade: A -- You called our structure well and your tactics, if implemented well, worked like clockwork as the market had no real pullbacks at all today. One thing that I need to add to tactics are "tick tactics". Today was a day where the tick moving average was CLEARLY above zero. And each minor push to lows was a profitable trade if going long on tick -800 readings.
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9:00--
Structure: C period move above overnight highs to 1379. E and F period have just been basing.

An argument could be made that the indexes have by and large topped out today. If for no other reason than the NASDAQ being divergent and weak.

Visualization & Odds: I don't see my visualization changing much for the last report. We can probably just expect a low volatility trend grinder higher. I think the probability for deep pullback is low. But it wouldn't be surprising if that VWAP gets tested.

Of note, the point of control is migrating firmly higher today with price and it is only 1 point from the highs. As long as the XLF stays divergent and strong, it's nothing but a green light higher for the rest of the day. I don't see why a seller would enter for any reason to fight the trend at this point.

Tactics: Sitting on my hands as I missed the trade of the day this morning.

Range/ATR 5min: 15 points
NYSE Vol:1,606
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:
Sector Skew:163 up / 9 down
Most Up/Down Sectors: coal 5%
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Grade:B -- I didn't like how you disengaged with the market as the low volatility grind went on for hours. I think next time a day like this prints, you'll be more on top of it. The TICK distribution today was amazingly transparent when combined with price action. Value and POC moving higher all day long.
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10:30--
Structure: The day has evolved into a near perfect trend day. Today's high of day is 1383, which is almost exactly the high from four days ago. Above this level there is a gap fill up to 1390. I would not expect a grind to that level but it looks like they want take price into the gap. 1383 would be a convenient visual reversal zone, but so far there is just no sign of any sellers. All of the tick bodies are firmly at or above zero. Sentiment has been in a strong uptrend all day. Bonds have been spiking higher for about the last 15 minutes. That, and a weak Apple Computer, are the ONLY two red flags that I see in this market.

Visualization & Odds: It will become apparent soon, probably by 11:00, if any sellers are going to come into the market. If the 1383s are taken out I think the high of the day will be in the neighborhood of 1386. If the highs of the day happen to be in at 1383, I would still expect to close above at least halfway back.

Either way it is a high odds positive ending to a positive day.

Tactics:

11:00 -- Right on cute at 11:00 a couple of sell programs hit. With visual resistence right here, here is the sellers chance if they are going to take it. Looks like it was just a token push down. Back to the grind up...

Range/ATR 5min:18 points
NYSE Vol:2,079,000
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:+1800, +967k
Sector Skew:166 up / 6 down.
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Grade:B -- Well as disengaged as you were, you get the gold star for visualizing the close to the tick. Not bad. Where were the tactics? I know where they were. You were avoiding them -- and the market. Just frame things in terms of odds and it's not so scary.

Seriously, if you followed your own analysis that "if no sellers come in at 11:00 at this visual reference then it's going to 1386", you'd have had a nice trade on your hands.

Remember that.

You had a crappy day yesterday, but most of the time, you call high odds moves with consistency.

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Narrative, Visualization Exercise and After-Hours Report:

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After Hours Report:
Structure was pretty clear from the start. Anytime value is an inside day, the odds right there shift towards a balanced day. You're analysis that the market would test range highs was decent. The real problem was the fact that you were unaware of the economic calendar today. And that threw on economic monkey wrench into the equation. Right after the report at 11:00, program selling entered and the market chip chopped lower.

NYSE Volume: 3,592,000
Globex Session Visualization Guess: Up. Google the big earnings report tomorrow.
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8:15--
Structure: A very tight range balance of 5 points. The overnight inventory is very long and subject to re-balancing. Look above the overnight highs and fail increases the odds that there will be a gap fill attempt. Value is almost completely within yesterday's value area.

Visualization & Odds: I visualize that there will be 80% chance a gap fill attempt and quite possibly even a full gap fill. I think that the long overnight inventory is ripe to be rebalanced. Beyond that I visualize a balanced type day as value is not in any hurry to move.

Tactics: I will be very interested in a possible long entry at gap fill around 1356.
I am also interested in shorting here at 1367 to play for what I think is a high odds move into the gap.

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Grade: B -- You guessed right that they would test into the gap. All today did was a minor low into the gap, and that was your signal to abandon downside bias and go long. I wish that I addressed this possibility in tactics because it was a REAL possibility.
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9:00--
Structure: Small, minor low into the gap. Price has rotated back to the point of control. Inter market themes are mixed to neutral.

Visualization & Odds: Small move into the gap reversed. And the question is now whether or not that WAS the gap fill attempt or the market will reverse, move back down and attempts gap fill again. I think that the odds are the low of the day is in and that the market is now free to explore back up to the highs of the range. I just think that the sellers had their chance and there just wasn't any business to be done at lower prices.

Tactics: We closed our short trade as the look down into the gap fill failed. Based on our visualization of high odds move back up to range highs, we are going to reverse and go long. with a target of range highs or higher.

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Grade:B -- Your ideas were sound, even though the trades did not work. It was just a lazy balanced day. You get an F for not looking at the economic schedule and noting that the budget report came out at 11:00. But you get an A for reversing your trade, even if it did not pay.

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10:30--
Structure: True balanced day now. With the failed look down into the gap, price basing around the vwap, sediment still positive, and the Russell 2000 divergent to the upside. I'm on the lookout for a late session push to range highs. The psychology is simple: the sellers push down the best they could yesterday and stopped. The overnight inventory got long, and was unable to be rebalanced. All of this points to the fact that the path of least resistance is higher.

Visualization & Odds: I think there is a 70% chance that the market closes at or near its range highs. And a 30% chance that it just stays in its current, and balances tightly or the remainder of the day.

Tactics: Still in our trade from 1367 long with a target of 1372. I think that sediment is sufficiently positive today for a high odds test above range highs.

11:00 -- A report came out and produced a program sell move off of highs. So far it looks like a fake-out bar as the vwap is holding. Either way, the VAH has proven to be a ferocious foe to the upside. Yet another program sell tick -800, so far no downside continuation. I'm on watch to close my trade as this economic report has brought in some sellers.

11:12 -- Nasdaq breaking range lows here, so we are out of the trade. News has changed the dynamics of how the tape is performing and I don't feel like taking a full stops on a wishy-washy trade. We are down a point on the day with two trades.
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Grade: F -- your total lack of preparing for the numbers release screwed up your entire analysis. On top of that you re-entered your trade for a full stop. You took two mid-range trades on a true balanced day structure.

I'd give you a worse grade than F if it were possible.
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Narrative, Visualization Exercise and After-Hours Report:
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After Hours Report:
It was hard to get back in the saddle of this journal after so many days off. It is very easy to slip back into the path of least resistance. And that, by default, is avoiding activities that are uncomfortable. But I survived and learned a lot today as a result.

It can be really hard to not fight trend moves -- especially ones that spawn via benign openings and sediment. My biggest accomplishment today was to have gotten burned on my 1st long idea and then quickly realized that momentum was unusually strong and to not fight the trend anymore until clarity of structure was more apparent.

I'm disappointed to have not gotten long later in the session when it was clear that momentum was waning and that that the market had stopped going down. I will address the metrics that clued me into this structural change via chart annotations.

NYSE Volume: 4,468,000
Globex Session Visualization Guess: Up
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8:30 --
Structure - Our first analysis is 1 hour later than usual. The daily is in a four day downtrend. Initial balance value was largely unchanged from yesterday but slightly lower. Initial balance closed below yesterday's lows and the overnight session lows. C and D periods have slowly grinded slightly lower. Of significance, price is right at the 50 day moving average. Thus far the move down today has been low confidence, with a series of very strong negative tick readings that have not been paid much for their efforts. Intermarket themes are mixed. Bonds are a strong trend higher while the dollar is flat and the Euro is very low confidence slightly down.

Visualization & Odds: I visualize this market bouncing at some point today. But so far it is one time framing, so the trend has to be respeted.

Tactics: I am on watch for a buy response here at the 50 day moving average. I am very interested in buying here due to the strong low of the day tick readings -1200. This market just does not feel as though it wants to trend down today. New lows print by a tick here at 1367.50. 8:37 - more new lows, looks like our long idea was pre-mature. Sediment is in a steep decline as is the tick moving average. No significant divergences to note in the SP sectors. Apple is up today, so the nasdaq is diverged. But apple is in a world of it's own, so I discount this metric. Our long idea stops out, and we will let the market form more of a transitional structure before considering re-entry. This trade failed due to the market clearly showing it's hand that it still wanted lower prices. It's logical to expect a 50 day MA response, but you need that reference to be tied to some obvious tactical entry signal. Your entry was rather "blind" in nature.

NYSE Vol:975k
Sector Skew: Only 5 green
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Grade: B. The most glaring mistake was my failure to address the fact that the Initial balance move below yesterday's lows was a breakout of the multi-week balanced zone. And that a break out with strong momentum could very well keep going. One of the art forms of successful trading is properly assessing if a tick extreme is exhaustion or signifying the entrance of large participants and the beginning of a continuation move. Obviously today it was a sign of continuation. I also failed to consciously acknowledge that tick had not registered a reading above positive 500. This is a nuance that I'm going to carry forward. If that tick is unable to register a positive 600 reading, then negative tick extreme readings will not be considered exhaustion.

The trade taken was sub-par and didn't have an explicit entry signal. Or even a decent divergence to hang my hat on. The TICK distribution alone should have kept me out of thinking long side and considering continuation shorts. I liked how I could not find ANYTHING to justify my entry long beyond the 50 day moving average. What I'm learning is that successful trades do a lot of talking. There are a lot of structural cues pointing to change. Today, nothing really pointed to change. Rather, all signposts were signaling continuation.

This was a great learning day to journal. It really helped me to internalize the nuances of a big sell day. These are tough to embrace when they happen so infrequently.
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9:00--
Structure: TICK -1400 readings now hitting as sellers are really piling on. The day's 1st true elongated spike prints just after 9:00. Sediment is now -2000 extreme in a straight-shot decline from it's opening neutral reading of near zero. This could be the stops being run under the 50 day. Dollar finally popping and bonds continue to trend higher. TICK MA reading is -800 now. Have not seen it that low in quite awhile. Apple finally joins the party and prints a puke bar too of 5 points.

9:15: A strong downtrend is in place now with, TICK seriously negative. Our 1st excess tail at 1356.75 and minor tick divergence.

Visualization & Odds:

Tactics: If you were to try a long, here is where tactically it would have made more sense. It is very uncommon these days for major reference to not be stopped gunned. If fading the trend and trying a reversal entry it makes more sense tactically to enter on an expansion bar.

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Grade: D -- Your focus was so poor today that you didn't even take a shot at visualization. Overall, you were out of balance and had poor focus, mostly due to talking on the phone instead of engaging. It's interesting to look back at how I was feeling during this time.

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10:30--

Structure:Just before 10:00 now and fresh lows again. Very smart and logical to have ditched any and all long bias for today. Slight reversal here at 1354.25 which is S3 support. Beyond this level, 1350 and then 1334 which is a prior swing low.

Visualization & Odds: Today is tough. It could trend down all day. Or it could bounce hard come 11:00 or 12:00. I'm going to go ahead and give trend down and close near lows high odds 80%. 20% that it bounces hard. If the TICK is able to print multiple plus 800 readings then the trend day might be in jeopardy. But as long as all of the readings stay below 600 then there is no reason to out think this down move.

Tactics: Forget long trades. On days that morphed into a trend down days, it's hard enough to even identify the trend, and it even harder to not fall into the trap of continuously fading the trend.

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Grade:B -- Would have liked a more robust structure analysis. Especially to note the momentum peak at 9:00. And just throwing in the towal on long trades was not particularly sane analysis. A three hour base at lows with increasing momentum and a minor low rejection was game on for a potential long trade.

But you can't out think the fact that your odds assessment was spot on. That's what it is all about. Odds. The power of this journal is to document your success/failure at odds assessment.

You were just not focused today. It is very interesting to be writing this while contemplating how I was feeling at this time of day. And comparing that to how I'm viewing the market action now. Very interesting.
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I'll Help You For Money!

In general I loathe fast talking psychologists selling expensive services with little or no evidence that their services will work, or are even applicable to the trader's circumstances.

And I know this guy is out to sell, if for no other reason than he does not offer replay recordings of his webinars. Advanced psychological concepts take months or years for assimilation. So why not offer replays, Randy?

His "mindful trading" concept is a nice re-packaged "zone". It's in the middle ground between avoidance and attack.

The zone you want to be in is tough to do as a trader. Really tough. That's why the vast majority lose in trading -- especially if day trading.

Think about how hard it is to be risking a lot of money in total uncertainty. How many people would buy a car if the odds were 60% that it would be the color they wanted? The mind HATES uncertainty and therefore, buy default, runs on avoidance. You literally have to override all of your brain's natural tendencies to freely express your edge (taking trades).

Now the perfect flip-side...

Next, contemplate how easy it is to get frustrated when risking a lot of money in the cesspool of uncertainly? Seriously, most folks go nuts on cue. Life or death stuff. Fight the f'ing market until there is not a cent left in the account!

Again, it can take years to swim up stream from the mind's hard-wired tendencies to attack (go nuts) in such a perfectly spinning whirlpool.

The hard-wired coping mechanisms of impulsive and revenge trading (really the same thing) are utterly perfectly evil in nature. And just a click away. Or just two dozen clicks away!

So if some destructive trader drops 5k on Randy, and maybe can save himself from blowing up an account, then so be it. It's not a perfect world. Selling psychological services to traders is about as non-cyclical business as you can get.

The day's action....

Emotional Clarity

I've touched frequently on this subject because it's so near and dear to me. (And believe me, I know that MOST traders spend an exorbitant amount of time each day in the grips of negative experience.) Even the tiniest bit of frustration decreases my ability to trade well. So I do constant reminders, like this post, fairly regularly. Self observation has to become an ingrained habit pattern for any trader. Anxious, negative thoughts or emotions really foster the mind to hang onto biases. And once in the grips of a bias, you're cooked.

Last month I did battle with multiple frustration episodes and depressive-type negative emotional arousal (I'm not clinically depressed: not even close.) My recently increased journaling activities at set times during the day, have really helped to alleviate these conditions. While simply focusing on process, and getting lots of positive feedback from that process via my grading system, it's hard for the neurotic thoughts to blossom. It's also greatly enhanced my ability to analyze for a host of reasons beyond calming the nerves. I think increased focus and discipline is probably 70% of reason why it's helping so much.

Trading can be a profoundly positive catalyst for self-discovery and personal growth.

Narrative, Visualization Exercise and After-Hours Report:

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After Hours Report:
Turned out to be a balanced day today with excess tails in A and I periods. A mid day mini-liquidation, rally and then a little swoon down right at the close. If long early in the session on the A period look down and fail below yesterday's range lows, there was a good trade to be had up to yesterday's afternoon swing highs. The midday base on the vwap also offered a nice short trade as the tick momentum was clearly showing its negative hand.

Value was unchanged from yesterday, and also a value inside day, as the market churned in anticipation of the jobs report tomorrow.

NYSE Volume: 3,240,000
Globex Session Visualization Guess: Down. I guess that the the market sells off on the jobs report.
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7:30-- Initial balance has A period excess tail that is above the overnight lows. Value is completely within the prior day's value area. Sediment is neutral extreme and intermarket themes are negative but in tight bases. The overnight session looked below yesterday's range lows and reversed. With the A period excess tail in place, I visualize structure for today being moderately bullish.

I first want to see if price can successfully explore above yesterday's value area and afternoon swing high at 1397. If this zone does not trigger a significant sell response then I would expect that the destination today is a look above the 1400 level.

Range/ATR 5min:6 points / 1.70
NYSE Vol:798k
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:+100 / +150k
Sector Skew:100 up / 71 down
Most Up/Down Sectors:
Coal +1.81%, clothing +1.53%, Gambling +1.47%, Platinum 1.16%
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Grade:B
It is good that you identified yesterday's afternoon swing high as a reference area. It framed the day well to see this area as a go or no go level. Sure enough, a failure at this level back to the POC completely changed the day structure from trend to balance.

Yet, you pointed out so many things that clearly identified today as a high odds balanced day. I would have liked you to have more firmly called out a high odds balanced day structure, despite the excess lows in place. Neutral extreme sediment is high odds until it's proven wrong. That's the purpose of this: to visualize what the high odds outcome is going to be.

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9:00-- Ok, we got the pullback from yesterday's M period afternoon swing high. The pullback is to the point of control. The failure to look above the overnight highs, and the rejection at yesterday's afternoon swing highs, shifts the odds of bullish structure to neutral. I think the odds are that both the high and the low of the day are in. There is a lot of selling and equities today as the strength in the down sectors is significantly stronger than the up in the up sectors.

Now, tactically we monitor the response at today's point of control. Thus far it is a slight buy response. I will consider a sell at range highs. And will also consider a buy near range lows. I am definitely not interested in a continuation long trade today at all. I think this market is just too weak to go up today. The Euro, the dollar, the bonds are all flat as pancakes.

9:30 -- The thought is crossing my mind of a potential 11:00 liquidation down move. But with Apple humming higher, along with the Nasdaq, it's not something that I'm very confident will happen. But the TICK MA is below zero here as price has not been able to bounce. It's just flat lining on the VWAP and point of control.

9:40 -- XLF and a host of financials making new range lows here. Trying a short in the indexes with tight stop. Just fishing. 1393.75

Range/ATR 5min:10 points / 1.09
NYSE Vol:1,385,000
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:-208 / +122k
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Grade:A
You correctly called that the high and the low of the day were in. You correctly identified that the market was winding up for a probe lower. And you correctly identified the shift in structure from that of trend to balance. I liked how, too, you identified with confidence that you were not interested in long continuation entries. All in all, excellent work.
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10:30-- We are doing this update just after a 11:00. The market was just so tight and so balanced that I wanted to wait until it broke either way. As it turns out we did get a liquidation move down just as we anticipated. So far the move has stayed below the value area low,but it has not touched either the range lows or even the days opening level. With the session highs where they are (below 1400) I feel as though today could have more downside. The NASDAQ is divergent to the upside and that is about the only thing that bothers me about this trade. Put in a larger context I think this market most definitely wants to explore downward today. A structural queue that was readily apparent during the base was that the tick moving average was below zero and in a slight downtrend.

11:20 -- No downside continuation from the break lower as buyers are coming in here and driving price back up to the breakout zone. Not surprising as everyone is trained to buy any weakness. And without the downside support from the NASDAQ and apple, it was just too brazen of a stance to expect further downside, especially as the lows were put in short of testing the downside range lows. We will put our stop to breakeven and see if there is another attempt down. The odds are that the lows of the day are in and this market will probably just balance for the rest of the day.

11:25 -- We bit the bullet and took +2 on that trade. The failed breakdown invalidated the trade and a scratch +2 is better than nothing.

NYSE Vol:1,863,000

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Grade:B- You did good maintaining flexibility as fresh evidence presented itself. I didn't particularly like the fact that you forgot about your earlier analysis that both the highs and lows were probably already established. And you got a little too excited about downside movement even after noting that the NASDAQ and apple being so strong. This market is not going to go down with a strong apple. But I'm excited that you saw the downside break coming. That was good trading.
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Narrative, Visualization Exercise and After-Hours Report:

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After Hours Report:
The session's structure became obvious fairly early in the day with the low confidence down move lower. The market was ripe for short covering all day long. I think that the sellers got away with one today, as it could've been a lot worse for them. It will be interesting to see if the buyers come in tomorrow and drive price back above 1400. Or if the destination has not been hit yet and the lows of the range at around 1370 are the target. I'm leaning a little bit towards the downside tomorrow simply because the responsive, upside trade seems a little bit too easy and predictable. Plus I think if the buyers were really out in force today, they could have ripped it higher today in spectacular fashion.

NYSE Volume: 3,654,000
Globex Session Visualization Guess: Up from the close and a gap up of some sort tomorrow. Follow through will largely depend if the 1400 level can be breached.
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7:30--A 11 point gap down and value sits near the midpoint of a multi-week range. The tight range in A period has given away to slight range continuation to the downside as initial balance closes near it's lows. Despite the sediment being negative extreme and nearly all sectors red, I want to note that initial balance was decidedly low confidence. Of key importance, the 20 period moving average on the daily is right at this level. Sellers have had a notoriously rough time with any push down, so we'll be monitoring selling confidence closely. The low of this range is 1370 and I would not expect a move down to that level today given the low confidence structure in place. Intermarket themes are negative but are all in tight low confidence bases.

Tactics: A meaningful move up from the initial balance lows will immediately trigger a gap fill alert, as this market is so responsive by nature right now. I want to see more of a transitional low put in to go long. And I want to see more evidence that the shorts are trapped to go long. I'm decidedly not excited about the short side with such low confidence and the 100% short overnight inventory. Especially when the overnight has made such a big move. But I am a respectful that there could be more downside and low confidence morning moves down can easily grind lower for awhile.

8:00 - The point of control from 3/29 has triggered a minor buy response here at 8:00. A move below this level would target the lows of 3/29 at 1386. Below that, as we've mentioned before, the range lows of 1370. The selling has been tired and low confidence. A successful 8:00 reversal here would not surprise me. I think odds are that the lows of the day or in at this point. And I will be on watch for a strong to shift the momentum to the upside. 8:22 -- entering a long trade here at 1391.25 as the sellers can't muster squat.

Range/ATR 5min: 4.5 points / 2.45
NYSE Vol:889,519
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:
Sector Skew:8 up / 164 down
Most Up/Down Sectors:
Airlines up +.20%, tobacco +.07%
Gold Mining -2.90%, Recreational products -2.75%, Platinum -2.50%, Non ferrous Metal -2.50%, Home Builders -2.25%
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Grade: A -- Even though the market did print a minor new low at 11:00, you were spot on in gauging how low confidence the selling was. Combine that with very short overnight inventory, and watch out shorts.
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9:00-- Sediment is still firmly negatively flat lined at -2000, but so far the 8:00 lows at 1389 are holding. A rally off the lows came back to halfway back and stalled. The inefficiency of the multiple 800 and 1000 negative tick readings was a clear signal to take on a upside bias. We entered a long trade at 1391 and will probably hold it for target of near the top of today's range. The structure now is definitely looking as though the market could go short in the hole at anytime. And this exact time of day can easily serve as a catalyst. I visualize that there is an 85% chance that the lows of the day are in and the market closes in the upper part of today's range.

But the vwap has proven to be strong resistance all day long and if price cannot break through it, then later in the day the odds will shift more towards lower prices and a possible continuation break of range lows. But with so much short overnight inventory and no excess above, any low confidence selling like we've seen today can really trigger the shorts to cover.

8:30 VWAP continuing to act as resistance as our 9:00 rally is going nowhere. TICK moving average is in a fairly steady uptrend, however. But the fact is if they can't
get through the VWAP, then our upside thesis is in jeopardy as late session sellers could be emboldened.

Range/ATR 5min:10 points / 1.61
NYSE Vol:1,686,000
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol: -2000 / -945
Sector Skew:10 up / 162 down
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Grade: A -- I liked how flexible you were to have a strong opinion that the lows of the day were in, Yet you were able to amend your position and take into consideration that the vwap was holding so firmly. And this observation was relevant as price did print a minor new low. But you were over all correct in your assessment that the shorts were in the hole and it was not going to be a day of downside continuation.
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10:30-- Well, the vwap held and that quickly shifted the odds for a test of the lows. And that's what's happening right now. Sentiment remained stubbornly negative at -2000 readings, and the NASDAQ is dragging the other indexes down with it. I don't expect the look down to have significant continuation. I think it's more or less just going to be stop running. But I'm not inclined to buy it just yet and want to see if the sellers are going to reload for another push or if the minor low was it. Ok, looks like just a minor low, stop gun, and XLF is diverged. We will try at long here at 1389.50. A failure of the responsive buyers to make this trade a winner would definitely be a big change of character, and have me standing aside to re-evaluate.

10:55 -- Price is back to vwap again. The tick is strong and registered a plus 800 reading. So we wait to see what the 11:00 programs will do. With the minor low in below, I think there's a good chance that this market tests 1395. And, depending on how energetic the move up is, I might even consider playing for a move into the gap.

NYSE Vol:2,239
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:-2000 / -1283
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Grade: A. Nothing wrong with your analysis as I see it. You quickly identified the minor low print as a good long trade, and the market tested the 1395's. You were not suprised or faked out about anything.

1st trade -1, 2nd trade +4.75
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