After Hours Report:
Turned out to be a balanced day today with excess tails in A and I periods. A mid day mini-liquidation, rally and then a little swoon down right at the close. If long early in the session on the A period look down and fail below yesterday's range lows, there was a good trade to be had up to yesterday's afternoon swing highs. The midday base on the vwap also offered a nice short trade as the tick momentum was clearly showing its negative hand.
Value was unchanged from yesterday, and also a value inside day, as the market churned in anticipation of the jobs report tomorrow.
NYSE Volume: 3,240,000
Globex Session Visualization Guess: Down. I guess that the the market sells off on the jobs report.
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7:30-- Initial balance has A period excess tail that is above the overnight lows. Value is completely within the prior day's value area. Sediment is neutral extreme and intermarket themes are negative but in tight bases. The overnight session looked below yesterday's range lows and reversed. With the A period excess tail in place, I visualize structure for today being moderately bullish.
I first want to see if price can successfully explore above yesterday's value area and afternoon swing high at 1397. If this zone does not trigger a significant sell response then I would expect that the destination today is a look above the 1400 level.
Range/ATR 5min:6 points / 1.70
NYSE Vol:798k
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:+100 / +150k
Sector Skew:100 up / 71 down
Most Up/Down Sectors:
Coal +1.81%, clothing +1.53%, Gambling +1.47%, Platinum 1.16%
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Grade:B
It is good that you identified yesterday's afternoon swing high as a reference area. It framed the day well to see this area as a go or no go level. Sure enough, a failure at this level back to the POC completely changed the day structure from trend to balance.
Yet, you pointed out so many things that clearly identified today as a high odds balanced day. I would have liked you to have more firmly called out a high odds balanced day structure, despite the excess lows in place. Neutral extreme sediment is high odds until it's proven wrong. That's the purpose of this: to visualize what the high odds outcome is going to be.
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9:00-- Ok, we got the pullback from yesterday's M period afternoon swing high. The pullback is to the point of control. The failure to look above the overnight highs, and the rejection at yesterday's afternoon swing highs, shifts the odds of bullish structure to neutral. I think the odds are that both the high and the low of the day are in. There is a lot of selling and equities today as the strength in the down sectors is significantly stronger than the up in the up sectors.
Now, tactically we monitor the response at today's point of control. Thus far it is a slight buy response. I will consider a sell at range highs. And will also consider a buy near range lows. I am definitely not interested in a continuation long trade today at all. I think this market is just too weak to go up today. The Euro, the dollar, the bonds are all flat as pancakes.
9:30 -- The thought is crossing my mind of a potential 11:00 liquidation down move. But with Apple humming higher, along with the Nasdaq, it's not something that I'm very confident will happen. But the TICK MA is below zero here as price has not been able to bounce. It's just flat lining on the VWAP and point of control.
9:40 -- XLF and a host of financials making new range lows here. Trying a short in the indexes with tight stop. Just fishing. 1393.75
Range/ATR 5min:10 points / 1.09
NYSE Vol:1,385,000
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:-208 / +122k
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Grade:A
You correctly called that the high and the low of the day were in. You correctly identified that the market was winding up for a probe lower. And you correctly identified the shift in structure from that of trend to balance. I liked how, too, you identified with confidence that you were not interested in long continuation entries. All in all, excellent work.
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10:30-- We are doing this update just after a 11:00. The market was just so tight and so balanced that I wanted to wait until it broke either way. As it turns out we did get a liquidation move down just as we anticipated. So far the move has stayed below the value area low,but it has not touched either the range lows or even the days opening level. With the session highs where they are (below 1400) I feel as though today could have more downside. The NASDAQ is divergent to the upside and that is about the only thing that bothers me about this trade. Put in a larger context I think this market most definitely wants to explore downward today. A structural queue that was readily apparent during the base was that the tick moving average was below zero and in a slight downtrend.
11:20 -- No downside continuation from the break lower as buyers are coming in here and driving price back up to the breakout zone. Not surprising as everyone is trained to buy any weakness. And without the downside support from the NASDAQ and apple, it was just too brazen of a stance to expect further downside, especially as the lows were put in short of testing the downside range lows. We will put our stop to breakeven and see if there is another attempt down. The odds are that the lows of the day are in and this market will probably just balance for the rest of the day.
11:25 -- We bit the bullet and took +2 on that trade. The failed breakdown invalidated the trade and a scratch +2 is better than nothing.
NYSE Vol:1,863,000
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Grade:B- You did good maintaining flexibility as fresh evidence presented itself. I didn't particularly like the fact that you forgot about your earlier analysis that both the highs and lows were probably already established. And you got a little too excited about downside movement even after noting that the NASDAQ and apple being so strong. This market is not going to go down with a strong apple. But I'm excited that you saw the downside break coming. That was good trading.
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