After Hours Report:
Pretty self explanatory notes in the journal. Today was one of those really neat days where you could really intuit why the market went to, and then reversed, at key areas. And it was all inventory re-balancing. Our Globex guess is up for tomorrow.
NYSE Volume: 3,311 Mil
Globex Session Visualization Guess: Up.
*************
7:05-- The open for today is at yesterday's value area high after the overnight session retraced Friday's late session spike down with a gap up. A period minor look above overnight highs and a straight shot open drive lower form there. Gap up just filled. The overnight lows are about five handles lower at 1360 and thus far visualizing that this is probably the destination.
Initial balance is so far just an inside range day, which by default, classifies this fast selling as inventory re-balancing. Overnight was long and now it's not!
Notable today is the aggressive selling in big cap momentum names and very aggressive intermarket themes. Bonds ripping higher Australian dollar ripping lower along with the Euro.
7:18 -- Overnight lows hit to the tick and small excess tail. A and B period are now very elongated, having printed a 15 point range. There is a gap fill below at 1375. Very good chance this is the next destination. But the selling is too liquidation-type of an event for me to expect a trend day down today. Probably a B formation type of day. Even after all of this vicious selling, the overnight lows have stopped to the tick, and we have nothing but a stop gun of Friday's lows on our hands.
7:40 -- IB closed with a to the tick test of the overnight lows and nice excess tail to boot. So now we monitor how/and if the B formation develops.
Candidate type of day: B formation
Visualization & Odds: With the elongated nature of the initial balance, an inside range of yesterday, combined with the perfect excess tail reversal at the overnight lows, odds are a great that today is a B formation. I will expect further tests of range lows, and only if the lows are broken with confidence will I shift the odds to a trending down type of day. If shorts are squeezed here, I expect a move up the half way back and the POC at 1368. Here, as i write this, tick is suggesting non-continuation to the downside at 7:43.
Tactics: For the rest of the day, I'll have to stay flexible.
Range/ATR 5min:15 / 3
NYSE Vol:
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:-400 -200k
Sector Skew:72 up / 99 down
Most Up/Down Sectors: airlines +1.37%,
toys -4.40%, travel -3.36% leasure goods -3%, internet serv -2.89%
*************
Grade: B. Your structural assessment was spot on but your tactics were mushy. Would have liked more if/than scenarios. You had your B formation day in mind, so be more specific.
*************
9:00--
Structure: So far our structural analysis was spot on. The elongated initial balance stopping and forming an excess tail at the overnight lows produced a buy response back to the point of control and just shy of halfway back. Price is now lurking just above that range lows.
I'm expecting a test of the range lows and probably a look down attempt. And I expect the lookout attempt to fail as two day has all the hallmarks of a B formation. One strong factor that I'm noticing is the extremely divergent small cap indexs. I think this bodes well for the long side, and the tick is also very strong too. Price may not make it to lows before a reversal hits.
*************
Grade: B -- I liked how you were prepared to buy a false look down of the lows. I got to busy actually trading to journal that I entered a trade near this time. And ended up long near the transitional lows about 9:30.
*************
11:00--
The VWAP and halfway back finally gave away and a strong push now to near yesterday's point of control. On reversal watch here. Have to leave office.
No comments:
Post a Comment