A Recipe To Win?

I stumbled onto a webinar today via a spam email.  Here is the link:



Of course much of this gentleman's information is valid.  But let's go through his  process and see if it is really the road to trading success.  And let's see IF he really can lead (and sell us) to trading success...  At the end of this post, I want to highlight what he's missing -- if anything.

I love the patient observation slide showcasing the American cougar's effective process at hunting.  Spot on: this approach will serve you well!

Next up he showcases his 5 step "recipe".  Do these 5 things and you are golden!

Let's see:

1) Emotional Regulation: He's spot on here and it's great that he makes this number 1.  Go on tilt and the mouse clicks can be incredibly destructive.  Great job, doc.

2) Mindfulness:  Well, for sure it makes sense to understand that focused effort is a good thing.  But we can be incredibly mindful, and still lose.  If I'm perfectly mindful during tilt, or implementing a losing strategy, then it's not going to be a great day.

3) Discovery of the historical internal dialog:  You are a crappy trader!  Just kidding.  Of course, not having a nurturing self-coach dialog with yourself is going to make things hard.  But if you have a trading strategy with a documented edge to make money with, then most of the truly negative self talk is never even going to take place.   Because you are making money and a bonafide super-hero loved by everyone!

4) Self development of your empowered nature:  Psychobabble BS.  Have a winning strategy and you will feel empowered.  If you don't know how to trade,  than your "empowered nature" will suffer. lol

5) Becoming intentional about the mind your bring to trading:  Sure, let's be intentional.  You don't want to sit at the desk, without a structured process, brief therapy goals, along with a successful methodology.

But you can have the greatest intentional mindset in the world and practice this 5 step recipe perfectly... Yet still be a massive loser.

Here is the key component so conveniently left out by our expert:

IF YOU DON'T KNOW HOW TO TRADE, THEN YOU ARE GOING TO LOSE AND FEEL CRAPPY ABOUT IT.  

These money grubbing want-to-be psychologists always seem to forget to point this out.

If they did, then they could not lure a guy who does not know how to trade into spending 2k,  thinking that his "empowered nature" is the reason for losing.

Once you are actually qualified to engage the markets, then the psychological nuances really can add value.

But the vast majority never even get to this point.  And some succumb to thinking that the short cut is spending money on psychological coaching.

Read through Brett's work and you'll be ok.

www.traderfeed.blogspot.com

True Trend Day Up!

You don't see an absolutely perfect true trend day up very often in the indexes.  In fact, today's example is as perfect as it's ever going to get.

Many ducks in a row need to line up, and even then, it's probably just luck for the biggest stock index contract in the world to not find SOME seller SOMEWHERE step in and ruin the party -- if only for a minor blip down.

But the true trend day will almost every time have some major structural cue(s) and reference level in which to launch it.  Today it was from a mechanical overnight liquidity test, and reversal, of the established range swing lows, combined with the previous session posting a near perfect trend day down.  The extreme selling prior day really added fuel to the fire and signaled to the astute trader to "watch out" as the up move unfolded.  We've discussed the last couple of days that the market is in "washing machine" mode and today was a particularly poignant example!

I do feel that this vicious trending action each way is going to ultimately resolve itself as a major top with significant downside the ultimate resolution.

Again, this top call ultimately rests on the monthly chart rejection at all time highs.

You day traders just can't forget this stuff!

The last trend day was 2-27-13.  Let's take a look.

Now for today's action...

Angry Red Day

Washing Machine

Today was a wild day.  A true gap down of 15+, a vicious gap fill assault higher,and then a powerful move lower to near range lows.

The trade of the day was to fade the gap fill, given the sediment extreme negative readings (rare nowadays) and lack of any programmed buying on the assault higher.  They always leave some clues, don't they!  

Lazy Balance

So what is up with these low volume Mondays?

Let's take a look at similar volume readings back to April and see if there are any patterns.

Now starting with today and going backwards to the other instances...

Conclusions:  

1) The trend is your friend -- especially in monolith creeper-grinders.  All of the days finished green except for today and 4-1.  But today was basically unchanged and the divergence is not significant.  4-1 had a morning liquidation move but ran into support just below the prior day's range -- indicating no real selling event going on.  

2) Range extreme tests of prior sessions are high odds for a reversal response within the context of mostly inside range sessions.

3) Each day featured neutral extreme sediment readings.

4) The 4-8 Monday morning balance gave way for a double distribution breakout that closed on highs.  Goes to show just how the tight balance principle can really launch price -- even without big volume.  And how the daily trend can be a powerful influence even on low volume days.

5) Finally, play for tight targets, respect those range extremes and don't out-think the trend.

You Think Trading Is Hard?

Sometimes just watching an engineering feat like this really clears the head.

What an amazing feat to land Curiosity so perfectly.  What 500,000 lines of code can do!  Makes one put into context just how simple the programs are that target key reference areas in the markets.

Friday's UE report spiked the market and continuation structure printed early on.

With the prior day reversal at the 50 day, and the daily solidly in an uptrend, the odds were to buy the pullbacks.

50 Day Short In The Hole

Amazingly transparent day today.

And it is always cool to experience the feelings of "I knew why it did that", even if  execution was not perfect!  

Here is what we want to cover tonight:

1) Yesterday we noted the B formation indicating selling drying up or longer time frame buyers stepping in as a potential flag of note.

2) Today's session opened within yesterday's value area and within the "teeth" of yesterday's balancing.  Then it based for two hours, extending yesterday's B formation.

3) The selling break lower, below yesterday's lows, occurred from significant balance, indicating that is was a double distribution print.  Double distributions have unique characteristics.  They "should not" fail.  Any signal of failure is to be taken seriously.  And today printed a big excess tail right at the daily 50 day.  And the programmed buying stole the show from then on for a trend day higher.