A Break That Worked

Our evening break-in update post last night about the overnight minor low did produce a sizable bounce of almost 10 points from the lows.  But it turned out to be just noise and never reached any levels higher to invalidate our downside bias.

The 1st hour printed a minor low of yesterday's range lows but then just sat there and "fur-balled" (balanced) for almost an hour and a half.  It became very clear to go with the downside break from balance and to give it a little room to run due the range break from lows coming from such a large multi-day balance formation.  Stuff that we have previously talked about.

It's fun to evaluate the data points and put your neck out on a call and get it right!  A 1% down today is not a massive breakout, but the ES finished the day down -18 points.  And by following our analysis of expecting a break to have some legs, then you had very profitable day.

And nobody I read yesterday concurred with my analysis.  They all were looking for upside.

After a trend day down, we are on a look out for balance tomorrow, or even a bounce, as this is still a bull market and a lot of folks got short today.