An:
1) overnight swoon to re-balance Friday's low volume long inventory
2) a morning look down below Friday's range lows
3) a then a minor low print of Friday's lows (Yes, they did it again. And once again, this is the trade of the day)
4) then a sucker punch higher to re-balance the overnight inventory.
5) then a series of minor highs of the overnight highs liquidated the afternoon session to range lows.
What I liked so much about today is that the minor low of the previous day produced a sizable reversal trade yet again. When this pattern strikes in the 1st hour and a half, it is ultra-high odds to be profitable long entry and that the lows of the day are in.
What also struck me today that it's a bit of a pattern change for sellers to have pushed price all the way to the lows with the morning minor low in. Although the lows were only taken out by a tick or two.
6 days of washing machine balance is shaping up to potentially offer of a significant break from the range.
I've not made a truly biased call in awhile, but I think that a big downside break lower is brewing. There are some positives to consider, like the market holding it's own down here, but I have to make the call when I see it. I am overdue to get slapped.
Update 9:30pm PT: They looked it down in today's overnight session to 1662.75. And I know you guessed it, it was a new minor low of the swing lows. And so far it's an excess tail and price is back to 1667 settlement. Further up movement, and the squeeze could be on and our downside thesis obliterated. A slide is added below.
Added 9:30 PT
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