After-Hours Report: Nothing to add after-hours. Overall a good analysis of a high odds check-mark pattern unfolding after the stop gun, and excess tail, left at yesterday's range lows.
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7:30 - The initial balance lows probed below yesterday's lows and formed an excess tail. Today's value is just slightly lower than yesterday's value area. The structure so far is pointing towards a typical bull market day in which "in nothing has changed" as a unsuccessful probe lower below the prior day failed with an excess tail. Sediment is neutral extreme and the inner market themes are mixed. I visualize a balanced day with an upside trend. I strongly feel that the A period highs are going to be taken out and then high odds slow grind with an upside bias. A check-mark type of day. It's a little funny that all of yesterday's losing sectors are two days most winning sectors. It is Friday and it's going to be a slow one.
Range/ATR 5min:8.5 points/1.71
NYSE Vol:870k
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:-150/-125k
Sector Skew:61 up / 112 down
Most Up/Down Sectors: Platium +2.69, coal 2.11, gold+2%, mining, oil, steel +1.5%
Footware -3.25, homebuilders -2.28, clothing and accessories -2.13
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Grade B -- Something is still a little off with my analysis. I visualized a balanced day with an upside trend. With an initial balance low that stop gunned the prior day's balanced and left an excess tail? In a daily super-grinder up?
Then the next sentence is "I strongly feel that the A period highs are going to be taken out and then high odds slow grind with an upside bias" You have some conviction here. But didn't you just predict a balance day? A "high odds" grind higher is not a balanced day.
Something is wrong with me here, and I'm struggling how to get my brain working properly. At least you were overall correct with your structural visualization.
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9:00-- Just as we visualized, price has now explored over the initial balance highs. I don't expect it to run away to the upside and I still visualize a slow creeper grinder up. This market has all the earmarks of printing a textbook bull market checkmark pattern. But there is one qualifier, that could throw a monkey wrench into my of visualization. The market is a technically in a little downtrend right now on the daily chart and we're right yesterdays range highs. If we do fail at this level then we'd have to consider the downside move. But I do think that that any downside is low odds at this point.
Range/ATR 5min: 11 points/1.07
NYSE Vol:1,375,000
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol: 689/66k
Sector Skew:112 up/58 down
Most Up/Down Sectors: plat precious metals 3.3, gold mining 2.69, mining 2.25, alumium 1.97, coal 1.81
footware - 2.48, clothing -1.47, personal goods, -1%
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Grade A-: Great job predicting the check-mark. Although I'm not really excited about your comment about the market "being in a downtrend". Yeah, It's in a MINOR correction on the daily, and if those days printed some REAL downside juice, then maybe it's wise to be on alert for responsive sellers. If the market had breached a moving average or something on the daily, then maybe. Today was not in that situation.
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10:30--Price is being accepted above the prior day range. So far so good for our checkmark visualization. But it's Friday, so volume will continue to taper off and I expect a limited upside from here. I definitely don't expect a gap fill and probably the high end destination guess is the overnight highs at 1395.25. I visualize that the market closes at or near this current level of 1391 or between up to 1395.
Range/ATR 5min:13 points / .93
NYSE Vol:1,962,434
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol: 968/144k
Sector Skew:119 up / 54 down
Most Up/Down Sectors: No change
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Grade A - The close was right at the high end of my prediction. Volume and pace just didn't tell me that the overnight highs would be taken out. And you totally ditched your downside thoughts.
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