7:55 -- The action hit soon after the initial balance closed. C period has been pretty much an open drive move lower to the lows of two days ago at 1400. There is a big gap below 1400 down to approximately 1394. We need to evaluate now if 1400 is the destination, or if the destination is gap fill at 1394. So far this move down for the session has been low confidence and neutral sentiment and a divergence in the bonds. Probably 70% chance that the lows of the day have printed at 1400. And a 30% chance that the gap fill in as the destination.
*************
Grade D -- You failed to factor the overnight inventory into your analysis like yesterday. Your analysis was mechanical and shallow. Yesterday, the fact that there was an excess look above and fail during the overnight session made you intuit possible downside action. The same pattern printed in last night's overnight session. And today's initial balance didn't even come close to testing overnight highs --- just like yesterday. But today you just overlooked this whole structural component and your analysis was dead wrong.
**************
Range/ATR 5min:5 points / 2.00
NYSE Vol:885k
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:-900 / -200k
Sector Skew:33 up / 140 down
Most Up/Down Sectors: Airlines +3.39%, HOme construction +1.12%, Marine Trans +.93%
Coal -3.75%, Non Ferrous Metals -3.09%, Platium & Industrial Metals -3.60%
9:00-- It looked like they were not going to pull it off, but selling accelerated within the gap and gap fill printed just before 9:00. Low of the day is 1392.75 and there is now 3 point excess tail just past gap fill zone. Textbook move to liquidity zone, stop run and bounce. The odds are now that the lows of the day are in. If price does continue to grind down, then it could be a trend move for the entire day. The key will be if this excess tail holds are not.
Range/ATR 5min:
NYSE Vol:1,725
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:-1300. -580k
Sector Skew:11 up / 161 down
***********
Grade B: You correctly saw that the strong visual area acted as support and shifted the odds greatly that the LOD was in.
***********
10:30-- So far the excess tail has held and the lows of the day are still 1392.75. A base at lows is now a hour and 1/2 old and considered a B formation. Since this base is occurring at such a visual reference, I'm suspect of further downside action, although a fresh break to new lows would not be surprising today as the market is so extended on the daily. There are plenty of potentially trapped longs. Intermarket themes are very neutral with the exception of the VIX which is strongly trending higher today. And that is bearish.
10:37 -- A break to new lows is appearing to be imminent. We need to watch for volume on the break and a failure of the break could lead to short covering back to halfway back. A successful break targets the 1390 area. A failure to look down here at all would probably seal the deal for a B formation structure rest of the day.
My visualization is 70% chance that the lows of the day are in. And 30% chance that the market looks down below the low of the day already in place. If new lows are going to be had the Sellers will probably need to do it by 11:00.
*************
Grade A: You called it correctly and were focused.
*************
11:05 -- A sell program just hit, and so far no luck getting price down past lows. TICK moving average has been rising since the momentum low at low of day print and is currently above zero -- never a great sign for continuation down. XlF is diverged and none of the other indexes are printing new lows yet. Here comes another sell program and market is one tick off lows. The dow and the NASDAQ have printed new lows. The XLF is still relatively far from lows. Here comes another attempt. Right at lows now and the stops should at least be taken out. Stops are taken but that's it. Now we monitor for continuation and or rejection. And so far it's just sitting. Bonds spike higher and new ES lows again, yet ONLY 3 TICKS of new lows by the sellers and a true new minor low. Probably that's it to the downside here. Unless a powerhouse sell program comes in. Price could easily squeeze higher now up to 1400. If it keeps grinding lower, then sellers have beaten the odds.
12:45 -- Visualization complete. Here is 1400 and halfway back, just like we predicted. The power of minor lows at visual references. Today was textbook.
**********
Grade A. Very nice landscape analysis. I especially liked the TICK tell as that moving average was in a strong trend up.
*********
Range/ATR 5min:16 points / 1.32
NYSE Vol:2,160
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:,-1411 /-908k
Sector Skew:10 up / 162 down
No comments:
Post a Comment