After hours report: My balanced day visualization got crushed as there was a late day liquidation break. But there were a host of indications that shifted the odds to this move printing today. Overall, a PERFECT day for mid-session range extreme entries, and the astute trader didn't mess with last hour range fades.
Trend up in VIX, bonds and trend down in some key financial stocks and energy were big tells. That, and the overnight session look above and fail.
NYSE end of day volume: 3,319,000
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7:30 -- A very tight range initial balance with the exact lows of the day at the base of yesterday's late day spike. Range so far is 3 points. Sentiment neutral extreme. The NASDAQ showing relative performance, and mostly due to apple being up over 1%. Bonds are again trending higher and the S&P 500 sectors are decidedly mixed. Even though the market's not moving, value is being accepted above yesterday's value area. As long as this reference continues to hold, odds are for an upward bias. Although trading today is below the overnight highs, and that could be a factor that could lead to some weakness today.
The bottom line is we wait and see if any directional edge appears.
Range/ATR 5min:3 points / 1.34
NYSE Vol:745k
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol: +87 / -68k neutral extreme
Sector Skew: 112 Up / 68 Down
Most Up/Down Sectors: Home Construction +2.9%, Metals +1.43%, Building Material +.98%
Oil equip/services -1.17%, Airlines -96%
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Grade A: I like how I intuited the overnight inventory action as being negative. This was an intuitive feel that haunted me all day long. And it would have been not logical to jump hugely on the downside camp when the prior day spike reference was holding support so well.
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9:00-- The range is now a whopping four points. This feels like a summer Friday instead of a Tuesday. I'm seeing no evidence of selling, as the spike from yesterday's reference continues to offer support. A true hallmark lazy, bull market day today.
Range/ATR 5min:4 points / 1
NYSE Vol:1,398,000
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:-60/ -41k Flat as you can get
Sector Skew:85 up / 87 down -- 50/50 for sure
Most Up/Down Sectors:Home construction +4.73%; Real Estate Developmental 1.11%
Oil Equipment -2%
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Grade A: True ultra-snooze action, indeed.
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10:30-- Nothing has changed since our last entry. The market is basing near lows and there is no volume, no pace -- no nothing.
I visualize a balanced day with 80% probability. And there's a 10% chance either up are down that in the range extends. I may have to give the downside a little bit more bias because we are well below the overnight highs. But in this grinder up market, and the structure of today, this is probably a moot point.
Range/ATR 5min:4 points / .86
NYSE Vol:1.965.000
Sediment A/D&Up/Down Vol:-168/-136k
Sector Skew:79 up / 93 down
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Grade A-: Actually, your take that the market was below the overnight highs was very astute. Even though you didn't handicap the move properly, I like how you intuited danger lurking.
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